---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (77)
description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (77)
---

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[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-december-and-ahead-to-january-2019)

## [A Look Back at the Markets in December and Ahead to January 2019](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-december-and-ahead-to-january-2019)

January 8, 2019

As I do every month, it’s time to take a look back at what happened in the previous one and what it could mean going forward. We have a lot to cover.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-december-and-ahead-to-january-2019) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-december-and-ahead-to-january-2019#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_6.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-conditions-remain-positive-but-clouds-on-the-horizon)

## [Economic Conditions Remain Positive, but Clouds on the Horizon](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-conditions-remain-positive-but-clouds-on-the-horizon)

January 4, 2019

We closed [yesterday’s post](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/concerns-over-china-grow-amid-bad-news-from-apple) with the observation that although current conditions remain good on the economic front, there may be clouds on the horizon. As such, it could be time to start thinking about a pending recession. Today, I want to take a deeper dive into that. But let’s start with why things are still good.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-conditions-remain-positive-but-clouds-on-the-horizon) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-conditions-remain-positive-but-clouds-on-the-horizon#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/china_2.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/concerns-over-china-grow-amid-bad-news-from-apple)

## [Concerns over China Grow amid Bad News from Apple](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/concerns-over-china-grow-amid-bad-news-from-apple)

January 3, 2019

This morning, the major headline was the downward revision in Apple’s revenue projection—the first time this has happened in well over a decade—on lower sales in China. The reaction to this news was apocalyptic, with markets around the world selling off. But why on earth are slower cell phone sales—from only one company—such a big deal? And do these events mean the downturn will continue to get worse?

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/concerns-over-china-grow-amid-bad-news-from-apple) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/concerns-over-china-grow-amid-bad-news-from-apple#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Banking_2.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-pros-and-cons-of-bank-loans)

## [The Pros and Cons of Bank Loans](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-pros-and-cons-of-bank-loans)

December 27, 2018

*Brad here. Today, we have another detailed look from one of our great investment analysts, Nicholas Follett. Just as with Anu’s take on [emerging markets](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-the-next-world-means-for-emerging-markets)yesterday, Nick provides an in-depth discussion of one of the most popular asset classes out there—including why you might be interested and what you need to watch out for. He goes into a bit more detail than we normally do here, but consider this an example of what really goes on at Commonwealth as we dig deep for our clients and investors. Enjoy!*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-pros-and-cons-of-bank-loans) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-pros-and-cons-of-bank-loans#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/global_economy_2.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-the-next-world-means-for-emerging-markets)

## [What the Next World Means for Emerging Markets](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-the-next-world-means-for-emerging-markets)

December 26, 2018

*Brad here. As part of my [Next World series](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-next-world-collateral-damage) on this blog, I have been discussing the themes and implications with Commonwealth analysts to try to determine what it will mean, over time, for how we invest. Anu Gaggar, our international analyst, put together this piece, which I think is worth sharing. Take it away, Anu!*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-the-next-world-means-for-emerging-markets) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-the-next-world-means-for-emerging-markets#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Federal5.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/fed-to-markets-drop-dead)

## [Fed to Markets: “Drop Dead”](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/fed-to-markets-drop-dead)

December 20, 2018

Of course, here I am riffing on the famous headline published after President Ford refused to bail out New York City (see below). Yesterday, there is no doubt that markets were expecting a bailout from the Fed—and threw a tantrum when they didn’t get it.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/fed-to-markets-drop-dead) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/fed-to-markets-drop-dead#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/StockMarket_4.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/pop-2018-bubble-of-the-year-award)

## [Pop! 2018 Bubble of the Year Award](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/pop-2018-bubble-of-the-year-award)

December 19, 2018

It’s that moment you’ve all been waiting for—the 2018 Bubble of the Year Award (“the Bubby”)! This long-standing tradition (as of last year) brings together the strongest and weakest investment stories for a no-holds-barred match to see which stands out as the bubble of the year. This year, we have several strong contestants.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/pop-2018-bubble-of-the-year-award) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/pop-2018-bubble-of-the-year-award#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/ConsumerSpending_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumer-debt-not-as-bad-as-you-think)

## [Consumer Debt: Not as Bad as You Think?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumer-debt-not-as-bad-as-you-think)

December 18, 2018

Several weeks ago, an advisor asked me to take a deep look at debt in the economy. I thought this was a great idea, both timely and important. In fact, I meant to get to it sooner but, well, things happened. When I did start to investigate, I realized that “debt” was many different topics, deserving of several posts. So, here we are, beginning a series that will resume in January. Fortunately, the news is not actually all that bad in most areas. Even in the ones where it is very bad (e.g., U.S. government borrowing), there are reasons to, if not be cheerful, than at least not to despair.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumer-debt-not-as-bad-as-you-think) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/consumer-debt-not-as-bad-as-you-think#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-november-and-ahead-to-december-2018)

## [A Look Back at the Markets in November and Ahead to December 2018](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-november-and-ahead-to-december-2018)

December 12, 2018

Both October and November were roller-coaster months. October took us down, and November took us further down only to bounce and finish slightly up. Now, as we move to the end of the year, we are seeing more downward movement, although there are signs that may be passing. As investors, we should probably be checking for whiplash, as this has been a wilder ride than we have seen in years.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-november-and-ahead-to-december-2018) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/a-look-back-at-the-markets-in-november-and-ahead-to-december-2018#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_6.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-next-world-collateral-damage)

## [The Next World: Collateral Damage](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-next-world-collateral-damage)

December 7, 2018

We closed the [last post in this series](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-next-world-taking-sides) with the observation that, even if the U.S. “won” the trade war, there would be collateral damage—both here and throughout the world. That turned out to be a timely point, as we have seen in the financial markets over the past week.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-next-world-collateral-damage) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-next-world-collateral-damage#comments-listing)

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- [August 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/08)
- [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07)
- [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06)
- [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05)
- [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04)
- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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