The Independent Market Observer

Why Is the Market Hitting New Highs?

August 28, 2018

Maybe I should go away more often. When I left for vacation about two weeks ago, markets were pulling back on worries about Turkey. But after 10 days in Iceland (largely free of the news cycle), I come back to find markets hitting new highs. What is going on?

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The Effect of Tax Reform on Earnings per Share

August 24, 2018

Today’s post is from Brian McCormick, a manager on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team.

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In Defense of Active Management

August 23, 2018

Today’s post is from Brian Price, Commonwealth’s senior vice president of investment management and research.

Much has been made of the recent proliferation of ETFs and the seemingly endless fee war taking place among the providers of low-cost index funds. As a self-described value guy, I love the fact that advisors have the choice of populating client portfolios with cheap beta through passive vehicles that, for the most part, are very tax efficient. In fact, cost and tax efficiency are the two main reasons why I am a firm believer that ETFs and index mutual funds should absolutely be part of the conversation when constructing portfolios.

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A Closer Look at the Conference Board Leading Economic Index

August 22, 2018

Today’s post is from Andrew Kitchings, a portfolio manager on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team.

When trying to determine the direction of the economy and the market, many turn to the Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) because it is a composite of multiple indicators covering a broad spectrum of the economy. But the LEI is not overly useful in terms of forecasting future moves in the market. Instead, it can help concisely explain factors that the market is already analyzing and anticipating within the broader economy. Let’s take a closer look.

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Know Your Portfolio: International Small-Caps

August 21, 2018

Today’s post is from Peter Roberto, an investment research associate on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team.

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The Real Lesson from Turkey’s Crisis

August 14, 2018

As Turkey’s crisis rumbles on, investors are on the watch for signs of contagion. Emerging markets in general are getting hit, so contagion remains a possibility. Still, there are reasons to believe the crisis will burn out in Turkey itself.

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Is the July Jobs Report Really as Bad as It Looks?

August 3, 2018

The employment report, probably the single most important economic report there is, came out this morning, and the headline number on job creation was not good at all. In June, the economy added 213,000 jobs, and the expectations for July included another 193,000. Instead, we got only 157,000. You might see a fair amount of angst in the coverage today.

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A Look Back at the Markets in July and Ahead to August

August 1, 2018

As we begin August, let’s take a look back at the markets in July, plus what to expect in the month ahead.

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Is Another Market Pullback Coming?

July 31, 2018

With the sharp drop in Facebook stock on disappointing earnings—and ditto for Netflix—two of the market leaders have now stumbled, leading many to ask whether the problem widens to the market as a whole. In fact, several analysts from leading banks have been quoted as saying a new bear market is on its way sometime soon. Should we be boarding up the windows and stockpiling drinking water?

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Is the Economy Growing, Slowing, or Both?

July 27, 2018

Well, the GDP report came out this morning. The GDP is an attempt to measure the size of the economy. Although the GDP has its problems, it is nevertheless reasonable to use it as a consistent baseline as to what direction the economy is moving. I have seen coverage today both on how great it is and on the many problems. Let’s take a more detailed look to see which side is right—or whether both have good points.

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