---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (19)
description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (19)
---

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[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Recession/recession-e.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-bank-failures-signaling-a-rerun-of-the-great-financial-crisis)

## [Are Bank Failures Signaling a Rerun of the Great Financial Crisis?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-bank-failures-signaling-a-rerun-of-the-great-financial-crisis)

March 13, 2023

Starting last Friday and extending over the weekend, we saw two very large bank failures: Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. Those followed the collapse last week of Silvergate, the “crypto bank.” These are some of the largest bank failures in U.S. history, and they all happened in the past several days. What is going on here—and could we be headed for the next Great Financial Crisis?

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-bank-failures-signaling-a-rerun-of-the-great-financial-crisis) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/are-bank-failures-signaling-a-rerun-of-the-great-financial-crisis#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Jobs/employment-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-the-jobs-report-and-a-major-bank-closure)

## [What Mattered This Week? The Jobs Report and a Major Bank Closure](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-the-jobs-report-and-a-major-bank-closure)

March 11, 2023

I tried [this format](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-consumer-confidence-and-durable-goods) a week ago—looking “beyond the numbers” to what the data really means—and the feedback was good. So, here we go again.

Two moments mattered this week—one pretty good, all things considered, and the other bad, potentially very bad. Let’s start with the good one.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-the-jobs-report-and-a-major-bank-closure) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-the-jobs-report-and-a-major-bank-closure#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Jobs/employment-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/high-stakes-for-the-february-jobs-report)

## [High Stakes for the February Jobs Report](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/high-stakes-for-the-february-jobs-report)

March 9, 2023

There is a lot riding on the monthly jobs report, which comes out tomorrow. For the economy, more jobs are good: more workers, more wage income, more spending ability, and so forth. There’s no real downside. But for financial markets, a strong report would be problematic. Those workers—earning and spending their wages—add to demand, which adds to inflation. So, a strong report would be bad news for the Fed, for interest rates, and for markets. This is the problem we face tomorrow. 

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/high-stakes-for-the-february-jobs-report) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/high-stakes-for-the-february-jobs-report#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-february-and-ahead-to-march-2023)

## [Looking Back at the Markets in February and Ahead to March 2023](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-february-and-ahead-to-march-2023)

March 7, 2023

After a strong January, markets continued to rally in early February, only to roll over and end the month down. Fears about inflation rebounded, and worries that the Fed would hike rates farther and faster dominated markets. While the economic data remained solid, this good news was bad news for markets, as it was seen as a sign of higher inflation and interest rates.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-february-and-ahead-to-march-2023) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-february-and-ahead-to-march-2023#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Consumers/Consumers-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-consumer-confidence-and-durable-goods)

## [What Mattered This Week? Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-consumer-confidence-and-durable-goods)

March 3, 2023

I’m going to try something new today. Rather than pick a specific topic to talk about, I’d like to look at the past week and discuss what everything means going forward. When I give talks, the usual title is “Beyond the Numbers,” where I present not only the data but what it means. Indeed, there are a lot of numbers out there every week, and not all of them mean anything. Of those that do, quite a few mean something different than what most people think. So, let’s take a look at what happened in the past week and what it means in the medium to longer term.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-consumer-confidence-and-durable-goods) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-mattered-this-week-consumer-confidence-and-durable-goods#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Bull-vs-Bear/bullbear-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-bear-market-come-roaring-back)

## [Will the Bear Market Come Roaring Back?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-bear-market-come-roaring-back)

February 28, 2023

Over the past two weeks, markets have been down between 4 percent and 5 percent, and worries about the economy and inflation have been growing. As a result, I’ve been getting questions as to whether it is time to start worrying about the resumption of last year’s bear market. While the recent volatility may well continue, and there are indeed things to keep an eye on, I don’t think so. Here’s why.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-bear-market-come-roaring-back) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-bear-market-come-roaring-back#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Volatility/volatility-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-matters-for-the-economy-and-markets-4-signals-to-watch)

## [What Matters for the Economy and Markets? 4 Signals to Watch](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-matters-for-the-economy-and-markets-4-signals-to-watch)

February 24, 2023

When you look at the news, there is a lot going on. Between politics and geopolitics, the macro environment is more unstable than usual. We see the same on the economic front, for both macro and micro reasons. Economic growth is down and up. Job growth is up—or is it? Consumer and business confidence are down—or are they? And, of course, inflation and long-term interest rates have been trending down—until recently, when they started trending up again.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-matters-for-the-economy-and-markets-4-signals-to-watch) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-matters-for-the-economy-and-markets-4-signals-to-watch#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Recession/recession-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/yield-curve-inversions-lead-to-recession-fact-check)

## [Yield Curve Inversions Lead to Recession: Fact Check](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/yield-curve-inversions-lead-to-recession-fact-check)

February 17, 2023

*“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” — Mark Twain (probably?)*

The above quote is a wonderful self-referential example of itself. When I was thinking of it and looked it up, I was quite certain that it was from Mark Twain. But on review, that isn’t certain. So, let’s add this one to the list of things we need to be careful of.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/yield-curve-inversions-lead-to-recession-fact-check) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/yield-curve-inversions-lead-to-recession-fact-check#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Inflation/Inflation-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-report-nothing-to-see-here)

## [Inflation Report: Nothing to See Here?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-report-nothing-to-see-here)

February 14, 2023

For all the hype around today’s inflation data and what it might mean for markets and the economy, the truth is simply this: not much news here.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-report-nothing-to-see-here) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/inflation-report-nothing-to-see-here#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2023)

## [Looking Back at the Markets in January and Ahead to February 2023](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2023)

February 7, 2023

After a tough December, the markets rallied in January. Fears about inflation faded, and hopes that the Fed would hike rates more slowly—or even start cutting them—dominated markets as signs of economic weakness appeared. But this bad economic news was good news, as long-term rates pulled back, supporting financial markets.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2023) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2023#comments-listing)

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- [January 2016 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/01)
- [December 2015 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/12)
- [November 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/11)
- [October 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/10)
- [September 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/09)
- [August 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/08)
- [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07)
- [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06)
- [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05)
- [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04)
- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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