Today’s post will be a short one, as I am currently at Commonwealth’s National Conference in Washington, DC. I spent this morning working on a giving back project, which involved painting three different properties that provide shelter to homeless veterans in our nation’s capital.

The question that seems to be occurring to more and more people is, “Are we at a market peak?” It has been a multiyear bull market, stock prices have tripled from the base, profit margins have been at record highs for years, and now interest rates are going up. It’s not a crazy thought.

Starting tomorrow, I will be off to Commonwealth’s National Conference for the rest of the week. It will be a very busy several days, including a giving-back project, which is a Commonwealth tradition that we do at every event, leaving a place somewhat better than we found it; a birthday dinner for an advisor friend; multiple other dinners and functions; and, of course, my conversation with Ben Bernanke on Friday.

Whenever I’m asked about investing—whether the market is likely to go up or down, what sectors to look at, and so forth—there’s one question I always ask before responding: What is the desired time frame? In my view, time frame is inseparable from any kind of reasonable response.

I’m at an investment conference today and tomorrow, so I will just offer some quick thought on several topics that don’t really warrant a full post.

I’m working on my 2016 outlook right now—yes, a couple of months before it actually gets here—and am struggling to focus on what will be most important. Developing an idea about the future requires first identifying the most important issues, then making some decisions about how they are likely to evolve, and finally trying to tie them all together.

Yesterday, I talked about housing demand and concluded that it is not only healthy but likely to increase. This represents only one-half of the picture, however. In many ways, the more important half is what that demand means for the housing supply. Home building requires labor, materials, financing, and most other sectors of the economy, so it can provide even more of a boost to the economy as a whole.

I held a client webinar yesterday that included a look at housing demand. As part of my commentary, I made the point that housing is actually an excellent leading indicator for the rest of the economy and a key part of any future growth. At that point, I realized I had not done a detailed update on this topic in the blog for some time—so here we go.

Just in case anyone has forgotten, it’s projected that the U.S. will run out of money to pay its bills on November 3, which is less than two weeks away. Since we hit the debt ceiling some time ago, the Treasury has been using the “usual extraordinary measures” to pay the bills—including raiding other federal accounts (e.g., federal employee retirement system balances). But even that cash will run out in early November. Once again, a crisis is coming.

We know the Federal Reserve is worried about inflation being too low, and yesterday’s figures seem to substantiate that fear. With headline inflation over the past month down by 0.2 percent, and flat over the past year, it seems that prices are indeed just sitting there.