The Independent Market Observer

Is It Worth Investing in Emerging Markets?

February 17, 2016

Today's post is from Anuradha Gaggar of Commonwealth’s Investment Research team.

The recent market turmoil has prompted much soul-searching among emerging markets investors: can they continue to justify an allocation to the asset class?

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More Volatility—Plus More Good News

February 12, 2016

Yesterday was another bad one for the markets. Worries continue to build around the energy sector, the European banking system, emerging markets . . . the list goes on and on.

Clearly, stock markets worldwide are betting on a serious downturn. Strangely, though, economists in general (myself included) think the global economy is much more likely to continue growing than move into recession.

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What the Heck Is Going On in the Markets?

February 11, 2016

When I woke up this morning, I checked the markets as I usually do, and my first thought was—paraphrased—what the heck? What happened last night to drive Asian and particularly European markets down that hard?

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The Market’s New Year’s Resolution

February 10, 2016

Today’s post comes from guest contributor Peter Essele, a portfolio manager on Commonwealth’s Preferred Portfolio Services® Select platform.

Like many of us, the equity markets have started 2016 with a New Year’s resolution: get in shape.

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Bear Market Ahead?

February 9, 2016

As I’ve said many times lately, I do not believe we’re heading for a repeat of 2008–2009.

A number of factors—a stronger U.S. economy, a less leveraged financial system and consumer, and an absence of imbalances like we saw with housing—suggest that we’re not in for a 2008-style collapse. Although the economy may be entering a slowdown, growth is likely to continue.

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Studies in Economic Failure: Japan Edition

February 4, 2016

As always happens in times of uncertainty, the doomsayers are back.

Not that long ago, they were predicting that destructive Federal Reserve policy would lead to the collapse of the economy and the downfall of the dollar. After being proven wrong on those fronts, they’ve returned with a new story: that the drop in oil prices will be the undoing of the U.S. economy.

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A Look Back at 2015: Lessons Learned

February 2, 2016

The first sentence of my market update for last January went like this: “U.S. stock markets dropped across the board in January, as investors reassessed their risk tolerances.” Sound familiar? I went on to note that the primary concerns were slow earnings growth, caused by weakness elsewhere in the world, and a strong dollar. Again, does that ring a bell?

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From Integration to Collapse: Technology and Global Trends

January 28, 2016

As we discussed yesterday, a number of countries depend on oil money to keep their populations happy, and lower oil prices are threatening those governments’ legitimacy. They lost control over the pricing mechanism as free markets took over, spurred by new technology—in this case, fracking.

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Renewal and Hope for Christmas

December 24, 2015

As 2015 draws to a close, the time has come for my traditional Christmas post. Best wishes to you and yours this holiday.

I have always loved Christmas. But as I grew older, I think I lost much of the wonder and the spirit behind the love and giving of the season. Now I have a seven-year-old son who is wrestling with the stress of being good under the eye of the “Elf on the Shelf,” eyeing presents under the tree, and baking cookies with his mom. His anticipation and enthusiasm are infectious, and I realize that, thanks to his influence, I am recovering much of what I had lost.

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Gratitudes 2015

December 8, 2015

Feeling and living gratitude is one of the easiest and most effective ways to improve your life. Ever since listening to Shawn Achor speak at a Commonwealth conference several years ago, I have been writing down at least three things I am grateful for every day.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

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The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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