The Independent Market Observer

Coronavirus Update: August 14, 2020 [Video]

August 14, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the effects on the economy and markets. We had some good news on the pandemic front this week, with the virus now back under control. Nationally, the daily spread rate is down to around 1 percent per day, and the daily number of new cases has held steady at about 55,000. Plus, the data shows that outbreaks are being contained in most states. One area of concern is testing. The number of tests has trended down over the past two weeks, and the positive rate remains well above what it should be.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: August 2020

August 14, 2020

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

Markets continued to rise in July, showing the second wave of the pandemic was not enough to derail the economic recovery. The S&P 500 increased by a strong 5.64 percent during the month. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) also saw positive performances, marking a solid start to the third quarter. Although the continued market rebound in July was certainly welcome for investors, very real risks to markets remain, as we can see when we look at the key factors that matter when determining the overall risk level.

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Medical Risks Contained, But Economic Risks Have Risen

August 13, 2020

The good news is that the second wave of infections looks to have peaked and turned back down in the past two weeks. Case growth is down significantly from the peak, and the case growth rate has ticked back down to the lows seen in mid-June. Two weeks ago, we discussed the peak of the second wave, and this decline is the next step. The data indicates that, in most states, outbreaks are being contained.

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Appearance on CNBC’s The Exchange, August 12, 2020 [Video]

August 13, 2020

Yesterday I appeared on CNBC’s The Exchange to discuss the sectors I favor right now and the markets. 

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Economic Risk Factor Update: August 2020

August 12, 2020

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

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How Will the Presidential Election Affect the Stock Market?

August 11, 2020

We’ve reached that point in the election cycle where I've started getting questions, from both sides, about the effect of the upcoming election on the markets. “Surely,” the question goes (and note that it is not really a question), “if Candidate X wins, the market will tank for the following reasons . . .”

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Monday Update: Jobs Report for July Beats Expectations

August 10, 2020

Last week’s major data releases all came in above expectations, helping to calm concerns that rising COVID-19 case counts are interrupting the economic recovery. Highlights included better-than-anticipated results for business confidence and hiring in July. This week will be another busy one, with updates focusing on inflation, retail sales, and the first look at consumer sentiment in August.

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Has Sustainable Investing Reached a Tipping Point?

August 7, 2020

Brad here. In today’s post, Sarah Hargreaves, an investment management analyst on our Investment Management and Research team, discusses whether the coronavirus pandemic has pushed sustainable investing to a tipping point. Over to you, Sarah.

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Finding Income in a Low-Rate Environment

August 6, 2020

Brad here. Today, Rob Swanke, an analyst with Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, takes a look at the benefits and the risks of preferred stock as a source of yield in a portfolio. Over to you, Rob.

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Does the Stable Value Fund Make Sense for 401(k) Investors?

August 5, 2020

Brad here. Today's post on why the stable value fund is becoming a more common investment option in retirement plan menus comes from Michael Geraci of Commonwealth's Retirement Consulting Services team. Take it away, Michael. 

In today’s uncertain economic environment, interest rates have declined, and the Fed has expressed its commitment to keeping them low. This environment has put pressure on money market funds yielding close to 0.1 percent, which has affected those retirement plan participants seeking preservation of capital. Many of these same participants are close to retirement and cannot afford to lose a significant portion of their retirement portfolios, but they’re also seeking returns to keep pace with inflation.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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