The Independent Market Observer

The Aereo Decision: In Praise of Content Creators

June 27, 2014

I have mixed feelings about the Aereo decision. 

If you haven’t heard, the Supreme Court ruled this week that Aereo—a company that uses multiple small antennas to capture TV broadcasts, which it then streams to subscribers over the web—violated copyright law.

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Appearance on CNBC Worldwide Exchange

June 25, 2014

Learn why I told CNBC Worldwide Exchange that I think taking out protection against a deeper correction is a good idea at this point in an interview today, June 25

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What If the U.S. Set Oil Prices?

June 25, 2014

For decades now, the U.S. has essentially had to accept the oil prices set by world markets. Starting in 1973 with the OPEC-driven oil shock, the major producers have been foreign countries. If the U.S. wanted the oil, we had to pay the price.

But are things starting to change?

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Reasons to Worry About the VIX

June 24, 2014

Also known as the “fear index,” the VIX tends to stay low when investors are feeling confident and to spike when investors get scared. Technically, it reflects the volatility of the stock market—how much things bounce around—but on a practical level, it tends to mirror recent market performance.

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U.S. Ex-Im Bank: Should the Government Step Back?

June 23, 2014

A longstanding demand of much of the political class has been for the government to stop interfering in the economy.

The latest example of this is a statement by incoming House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, in response to a question about the U.S. Export-Import Bank: “One of the biggest problems with government is they go and take hard-earned money so others do things the private sector can do.”

As you might guess, McCarthy says he won’t support reauthorizing the bank’s charter.

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Picking Winners: The World Cup and Investing

June 20, 2014

The thing that interests me about the World Cup—besides the chance to watch elite players going all out—is how the results totally upend the usual global stories.

Looking at the Goldman Sachs projections for the tournament, the major powers (with the exception of Germany) are nowhere to be found. Combined, the U.S. and Russia have a 1.1-percent chance of winning it all. China isn’t even on the list. Japan is, but might as well not be. Ditto the UK.

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Interview with WSJ MoneyBeat

June 20, 2014

Yesterday, June 19, I spoke with Wall Street Journal MoneyBeat's anchor, Paul Vigna, on the keys to avoiding what is being projected as an unsettled second half of 2014 for the U.S. economy. 

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Interview on Fox Business Network's Opening Bell

June 19, 2014

I joined Maria Bartiromo on the set of Fox Business Network’s Opening Bell today, June 19, to discuss the economic impact of the crisis in Iraq.

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Fed to Market: Full Speed Ahead

June 19, 2014

The Federal Reserve’s announcement yesterday that it would continue its current tapering schedule—but that a rise in rates still isn’t imminent—drove markets to the 20th new high of the year.

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Why the Middle East Matters: Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy

June 18, 2014

With rising turmoil in two major oil-producing states, Iraq and Iran, the world faces an increase in oil prices—and the consequent economic damage. Fortunately, the U.S. is much better positioned to ride out the storm than it has been in the past.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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