Today, I’m launching a new series of monthly updates on risk factors that could signal economic trouble ahead. (The data comes in on a regular basis, but its economic significance doesn’t change that quickly.)

The data series highlighted here have proven to be reliable storm signals—and they’re suggesting a pretty nice summer ahead. 

My initial outlook for 2014 was based on an improving economy across the board. As we approach the middle of the year, that forecast is playing out.

If you haven’t already seen the news online, you’ll no doubt see it on tomorrow’s front pages: first-quarter economic growth was revised down from an anemic 0.1-percent gain to a much worse 1-percent loss.

Check out Brad’s interview on Bloomberg Radio’s The Hays Advantage with Kathleen Hays and Vonnie Quinn, where he offers his general outlook on the markets.

My post the other day about the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) generated a lot of interest among readers, both in the U.S. and abroad. In concluding that FATCA wouldn’t have a material effect on the value of the dollar or the U.S. economy, I was addressing a fairly restricted set of circumstances. Given the depth of interest in this topic, and the fact that the law does have serious implications—just not for the dollar—let’s dig in a bit more.

I ended last week on a note of shared sacrifice. This week, let’s talk about some of the forms that sacrifice will likely take.

In order to take advantage of some new capabilities and streamlined efficiencies here at Commonwealth, my friends in the Marketing department tell me that my blog will be moving to a new address, http://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer, effective June 2, 2014.

One of the joys of being a father is explaining to Jackson things that I, as an adult, take for granted. Today, we’ve been talking about Memorial Day—not as the start of summer but as a time to remember those who have died so we can live in freedom.

I’m at the J.P. Morgan Research Summit today. Yesterday’s sessions were excellent, and one discussion seemed particularly applicable in light of my recent posts on moving averages.

For the past two days, I’ve focused on moving averages—specifically, how investors can use them as warning signals and how they work to manage risk. Today, we’ll talk about their potential costs and drawbacks, which are common to any type of risk management program.