Also known as the “fear index,” the VIX tends to stay low when investors are feeling confident and to spike when investors get scared. Technically, it reflects the volatility of the stock market—how much things bounce around—but on a practical level, it tends to mirror recent market performance.

A longstanding demand of much of the political class has been for the government to stop interfering in the economy.

The latest example of this is a statement by incoming House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, in response to a question about the U.S. Export-Import Bank: “One of the biggest problems with government is they go and take hard-earned money so others do things the private sector can do.”

As you might guess, McCarthy says he won’t support reauthorizing the bank’s charter.

The thing that interests me about the World Cup—besides the chance to watch elite players going all out—is how the results totally upend the usual global stories.

Looking at the Goldman Sachs projections for the tournament, the major powers (with the exception of Germany) are nowhere to be found. Combined, the U.S. and Russia have a 1.1-percent chance of winning it all. China isn’t even on the list. Japan is, but might as well not be. Ditto the UK.

Yesterday, June 19, I spoke with Wall Street Journal MoneyBeat's anchor, Paul Vigna, on the keys to avoiding what is being projected as an unsettled second half of 2014 for the U.S. economy. 

I joined Maria Bartiromo on the set of Fox Business Network’s Opening Bell today, June 19, to discuss the economic impact of the crisis in Iraq.

The Federal Reserve’s announcement yesterday that it would continue its current tapering schedule—but that a rise in rates still isn’t imminent—drove markets to the 20th new high of the year.

With rising turmoil in two major oil-producing states, Iraq and Iran, the world faces an increase in oil prices—and the consequent economic damage. Fortunately, the U.S. is much better positioned to ride out the storm than it has been in the past.

Is having more information always a good thing? It’s generally hailed as such, but, depending on your perspective, the reality may be more complicated.

In the news today, there are several examples of more data leading to changes that, while painful in the short run, should yield long-term positive results.

Returning to the office after 10 days out, I have a lot of reading to catch up on. One benefit of that, though, is being able to connect individual data points for a bigger-picture view.

Employment, in particular, caught my eye this morning. Taken together, a slew of positive employment numbers paint an even better picture. (The employment data here is from various federal sources, as compiled by Ned Davis Research.)

I’ll admit to being a bit out of touch with the markets for the past week, but I did note yesterday’s drop, which we can safely attribute to the increase in oil prices as conflict in Iraq escalates. Like many commentators, I’ve been focusing more on risk out of China and Europe, but the Middle East clearly remains a factor.