Last week's strong employment report settled what I saw as the major short-term risk here in the U.S. Meanwhile, the biggest international risks—Greece and China—continue to make headlines, but the pot isn’t boiling over yet.
May 11, 2015
Last week's strong employment report settled what I saw as the major short-term risk here in the U.S. Meanwhile, the biggest international risks—Greece and China—continue to make headlines, but the pot isn’t boiling over yet.
May 8, 2015
The employment report for April came in just right, not too hot and not too cold.
At 223,000, it was a bit below expectations, but not meaningfully so. More important, it was back above the 200,000 threshold and well above the 126,000 of last month, prompting immediate sighs of relief all around.
I participated in a brief panel on CNBC's Power Lunch program on Thursday, May 7, 2015. The discussion centered on whether equities are overvalued—and what that could mean for retail investors and the stock market.
Once again, the chair of the Federal Reserve has weighed in on asset prices.
Yesterday, Janet Yellen said to Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, that “equity market valuations at this point are quite high.” Her comment has prompted a certain amount of soul-searching in the media over whether Yellen should be talking about stock prices at all, whether she’s right, and, of course, what that means both for the market and for the future course of Fed actions.
May 6, 2015
Last night, a reader wrote in asking about a bold prediction by a “very successful financial advisor”: if Greece were to miss a payment and default on its debt, the market would fall 50 percent. Setting aside whether this financial advisor has moved all his clients to cash—and if he really believes in that idea, he certainly should—I very much disagree with his conclusion.
May 6, 2015
In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss the economy’s mixed performance in April, focusing on key economic indicators and the stock market. I also share how recent employment figures fit in with the recovery.
Every so often, you read something that makes so much sense you wonder why you didn’t write it yourself. Recently, I have run into a couple of articles I wish I had written, and I’d like to highlight them with some additional thoughts.
May 4, 2015
I know I’m a couple days late on the “fight of the century” theme. Apparently, there was a major boxing match the other night, which, characteristically, I missed.
Nonetheless, better late than never, especially since there’s another “fight” going on that will ultimately have a much bigger effect on our lives.
May 1, 2015
Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data hasn’t changed much from last month—it remains positive in almost all areas and has continued to improve in many cases—but it’s still important to keep an eye on things.
April 30, 2015
Reading over the statement from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, it seems clear that the committee members are as confused as everyone else.
