The Independent Market Observer

Market Thoughts for May 2015 [Video]

May 6, 2015

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss the economy’s mixed performance in April, focusing on key economic indicators and the stock market. I also share how recent employment figures fit in with the recovery.

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Two Articles I Wish I Had Written: On GDP and Shadow Labor

May 5, 2015

Every so often, you read something that makes so much sense you wonder why you didn’t write it yourself. Recently, I have run into a couple of articles I wish I had written, and I’d like to highlight them with some additional thoughts.

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Yuan Vs. Dollar: The Fight of the Century

May 4, 2015

I know I’m a couple days late on the “fight of the century” theme. Apparently, there was a major boxing match the other night, which, characteristically, I missed.

Nonetheless, better late than never, especially since there’s another “fight” going on that will ultimately have a much bigger effect on our lives.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2015

May 1, 2015

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data hasn’t changed much from last month—it remains positive in almost all areas and has continued to improve in many cases—but it’s still important to keep an eye on things.

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The Fed's as Confused as Everyone Else

April 30, 2015

Reading over the statement from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, it seems clear that the committee members are as confused as everyone else.

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Q1 GDP Growth: Negatives and Positives

April 29, 2015

Today’s big headline is that U.S. economic growth came in at 0.2 percent for the first quarter of the year, well below already depressed expectations. In line with yesterday’s post, is this a sign of slowing growth?

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Considering an Economic Slowdown

April 28, 2015

One of the things I try to keep in mind is the possibility I might be wrong. (Hard to believe, I know, but stranger things have happened.)

Although I remain convinced the economy will continue to grow—and that weather and other transitory factors contributed to the lackluster first quarter—the continuing stream of weak economic reports at least suggests the opposite is also possible.

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Oil and Commodity Prices: Back to the Future

April 27, 2015

Today seems like a good time to pull out the wayback machine again, for a look at commodity and oil prices. I’ve focused quite a bit on oil prices here, and what they might mean for the U.S. economy, but other commodities are also important.

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Appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell, April 24, 2015 [Video]

April 27, 2015

In case you missed it, on Friday, April 24, I was on-air with CNBC Closing Bell co-anchors Kelly Evans and Bob Pisani to discuss the marketsin particular, performance of old-school tech names.

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Lessons from the Nasdaq’s New High

April 24, 2015

It’s been 15 years since the dot-com boom and bust, and the Nasdaq has finally reclaimed its old high. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have hit a bunch of new highs since then, but the Nasdaq, which flew higher and crashed harder, didn’t make it back to the top of the mountain until yesterday.

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