Why all the angst over the weak jobs number? Much of it is based on the assumption that a decline of that magnitude, especially after a very strong run, means we’re moving into shaky economic territory.

We might be, but let’s check the data before we get too upset.

In the interviews I’ve given recently with various financial media, the questions have centered on earnings season—the time every quarter when companies report how much money they made, in revenue, and kept, in earnings, in the last quarter.

This matters, certainly for the stock market, which is priced off of those earnings, but also for the economy as a whole. If the economy is doing well, companies should be doing well.

The different reactions to Friday’s weak employment report got me thinking about how our underlying expectations can affect our decision-making processes—especially when it comes to investments.

My response to the employment report was to look at other employment data and decide the bad news was probably a blip. A friend of mine, on the other hand, took it as confirmation of all his worst fears. You can certainly see where each of us is coming from, in the larger sense.

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss some of the reasons why March was such a tough month for the markets, employment and job creation, and the housing market. 

I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend, whatever holiday you celebrated. Unfortunately, it wasn’t a good Friday from an economic standpoint.

The employment data released last week disappointed across the board:

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data hasn’t changed much from last month—it remains positive in almost all areas and has continued to improve in many cases—but it’s still important to keep an eye on things.

As we move into the year, though, the economic forecast remains bright.

I’m giving a talk today at the Commonwealth Business Experience conference, which, as usual, has been just wonderful. But as I woke up this morning, to go over my presentation one more time, I realized that it’s April Fools’ day.

Not, perhaps, the best day to give a presentation, but it does give me a certain amount of wiggle room for anything I might get wrong . . .

As I mentioned yesterday, I don’t believe that we’re in the middle of currency wars, but I do see countries taking action to boost their economic and job growth. The side effects include what may, from a certain perspective, look like a currency war.

After writing Friday’s piece on currency wars, it occurred to me that some of the assumptions baked into my argument warranted a closer look. Essentially, instead of a war, I believe we’re seeing an economic readjustment, which is a significantly different way of looking at the situation.

Plenty of people are concerned about the “currency wars” now playing out around the world. As you might guess from the quotes, I don’t entirely agree with the notion that we’re at war—and I’m even less convinced that the consequences would be as extreme as that kind of language implies.