The Independent Market Observer

April Jobs Report: Things Are Looking Up

May 8, 2015

The employment report for April came in just right, not too hot and not too cold.

At 223,000, it was a bit below expectations, but not meaningfully so. More important, it was back above the 200,000 threshold and well above the 126,000 of last month, prompting immediate sighs of relief all around.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, May 7, 2015 [Video]

May 8, 2015

I participated in a brief panel on CNBC's Power Lunch program on Thursday, May 7, 2015. The discussion centered on whether equities are overvalued—and what that could mean for retail investors and the stock market. 

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Janet Yellen’s Warning About the Stock Market

May 7, 2015

Once again, the chair of the Federal Reserve has weighed in on asset prices.

Yesterday, Janet Yellen said to Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, that “equity market valuations at this point are quite high.” Her comment has prompted a certain amount of soul-searching in the media over whether Yellen should be talking about stock prices at all, whether she’s right, and, of course, what that means both for the market and for the future course of Fed actions.

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What Happens If Greece Defaults on Its Debt?

May 6, 2015

Last night, a reader wrote in asking about a bold prediction by a “very successful financial advisor”: if Greece were to miss a payment and default on its debt, the market would fall 50 percent. Setting aside whether this financial advisor has moved all his clients to cash—and if he really believes in that idea, he certainly should—I very much disagree with his conclusion.

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Market Thoughts for May 2015 [Video]

May 6, 2015

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss the economy’s mixed performance in April, focusing on key economic indicators and the stock market. I also share how recent employment figures fit in with the recovery.

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Two Articles I Wish I Had Written: On GDP and Shadow Labor

May 5, 2015

Every so often, you read something that makes so much sense you wonder why you didn’t write it yourself. Recently, I have run into a couple of articles I wish I had written, and I’d like to highlight them with some additional thoughts.

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Yuan Vs. Dollar: The Fight of the Century

May 4, 2015

I know I’m a couple days late on the “fight of the century” theme. Apparently, there was a major boxing match the other night, which, characteristically, I missed.

Nonetheless, better late than never, especially since there’s another “fight” going on that will ultimately have a much bigger effect on our lives.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2015

May 1, 2015

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data hasn’t changed much from last month—it remains positive in almost all areas and has continued to improve in many cases—but it’s still important to keep an eye on things.

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The Fed's as Confused as Everyone Else

April 30, 2015

Reading over the statement from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, it seems clear that the committee members are as confused as everyone else.

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Q1 GDP Growth: Negatives and Positives

April 29, 2015

Today’s big headline is that U.S. economic growth came in at 0.2 percent for the first quarter of the year, well below already depressed expectations. In line with yesterday’s post, is this a sign of slowing growth?

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