December 4, 2015
Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. For the first time since I started this update, we now have a yellow light—in consumer confidence—along with some other signs of weakness.
December 3, 2015
Recently, I’ve been working on the 2016 outlook, reviewing all of the usual data that we highlight monthly, as well as developing a series of other projections on wages, income, spending, corporate profits, and so forth. Although the consumer remains healthy, one of the things that has caught my eye has been a surprising deterioration in a number of business-related components of the economy, and it has me thinking about what this could mean in terms of an economic slowdown.
December 3, 2015
In my latest Market Thoughts video, I provide an update on the U.S. economy, along with recent global market performance. I also discuss the decline in spending growth that has likely resulted from lower consumer confidence levels.
December 2, 2015
As we move into the holiday shopping season, we find ourselves deluged by catalogs, sales, advertising, and—in my case—impassioned pleas by my seven-year-old son for toys. Spending really doesn’t seem to be a concern, at least in terms of not enough of it.
December 1, 2015
This post is a follow-up of sorts to one I wrote a couple of weeks ago, “U.S. Dollar Still Failing to Collapse.” As expected, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) decided to add (as of next October) the Chinese currency to the list of reserve currencies. Also as expected, the world is not ending just yet.
November 30, 2015
Despite the Thanksgiving holiday, there was quite a bit of data released last week. Let's take a closer look.
November 27, 2015
I have shared this story before, but I think it's particularly enlightening at this time of year.
November 25, 2015
When was the last time a Russian fighter was shot down? I’m guessing in the 1950s or so. The fact that Turkey was willing to shoot down a Russian jet, under any circumstances, is a major game changer.
November 24, 2015
The other day, I wrote that, as the cycle turns, we need to examine things that we assume to be true and make sure they still are. I used China’s quest to make the yuan a reserve currency as an example of just that type of decision. It’s a decision you might make based on what you know to be so but end up regretting once it turns out you were wrong in the first place.
November 23, 2015
Data was mixed last week, with multiple signs of a slowdown. But, in many cases, this was due primarily to a pullback from strong recent performance, while the long-term trend remains positive. In addition, more forward-looking indicators were generally more positive than those that look back, suggesting the slowdown is passing.
