The Independent Market Observer

What’s New in the Bank Loan (Floating-Rate) Space?

December 9, 2015

Today’s post comes from guest contributor Peter Essele, a portfolio manager on Commonwealth’s Preferred Portfolio Services® Select platform.

Coming out of the financial crisis, one of the darling trades for many investors was the bank loan (i.e., floating-rate) space because of its low duration and supposed ability to withstand a rise in interest rates. The selling point was that the “floating-rate” component of the investment’s yield would offer an increasing payout when rates began to rise. So why are prices declining instead?

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Gratitudes 2015

December 8, 2015

Feeling and living gratitude is one of the easiest and most effective ways to improve your life. Ever since listening to Shawn Achor speak at a Commonwealth conference several years ago, I have been writing down at least three things I am grateful for every day.

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Monday Update: More Slow But Steady

December 7, 2015

Last week was a busy one, with several important releases that provided a mixed bag of both support for a continued slowdown and a suggestion that growth remains solid despite that slowdown. Let’s take a closer look.

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Appearance on TheStreet, December 4, 2015 [Video]

December 7, 2015

Last Friday, I was on set with TheStreet to discuss what’s ahead for the economy and markets with host Gregg Greenberg. From consumer income and spending growth, to a potential normalization in the energy sector, find out why I think 2016 will be a better year than many people currently expect.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: December 2015

December 4, 2015

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. For the first time since I started this update, we now have a yellow light—in consumer confidence—along with some other signs of weakness.

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Taking a Slowdown Seriously

December 3, 2015

Recently, I’ve been working on the 2016 outlook, reviewing all of the usual data that we highlight monthly, as well as developing a series of other projections on wages, income, spending, corporate profits, and so forth. Although the consumer remains healthy, one of the things that has caught my eye has been a surprising deterioration in a number of business-related components of the economy, and it has me thinking about what this could mean in terms of an economic slowdown.

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Market Thoughts for December 2015 [Video]

December 3, 2015

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I provide an update on the U.S. economy, along with recent global market performance. I also discuss the decline in spending growth that has likely resulted from lower consumer confidence levels.

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Is Saving Back in Style?

December 2, 2015

As we move into the holiday shopping season, we find ourselves deluged by catalogs, sales, advertising, and—in my case—impassioned pleas by my seven-year-old son for toys. Spending really doesn’t seem to be a concern, at least in terms of not enough of it.

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Yuan Becomes Reserve Currency

December 1, 2015

This post is a follow-up of sorts to one I wrote a couple of weeks ago, “U.S. Dollar Still Failing to Collapse.” As expected, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) decided to add (as of next October) the Chinese currency to the list of reserve currencies. Also as expected, the world is not ending just yet.

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Monday Update: Slow But Stabilizing

November 30, 2015

Despite the Thanksgiving holiday, there was quite a bit of data released last week. Let's take a closer look.

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