The Independent Market Observer

Will We Have a Depression?

March 18, 2016

Today’s topic comes from a reader question that underlines, very succinctly, the economic event people dread most. We talk about the stock market, we talk about the Great Recession, but the real fear is that we are in, or about to enter, a repeat of the Great Depression—and that we won’t be able to get out of it.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, March 17, 2016 [Video]

March 18, 2016

Is the Fed behind the curve on global risk? That's part of what I talked about yesterday during an appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch. I also spoke with program co-anchor Brian Sullivan about the markets and stock opportunities.

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The Student Loan Problem (Or Is It?)

March 17, 2016

Student loan debt has increased dramatically in recent years, and as graduates reportedly struggle to find jobs, there's growing concern about the role these loans might play in the next financial crisis. The fear is that a systemic default could rock the financial system, much as subprime mortgage defaults did.

Do we really have a systemic problem on our hands? And just how great is the risk? Let’s take a look at the underlying data.

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How Likely Is a Recession?

March 16, 2016

I wrote the other day about the very real chance of an economic boom over the next couple of years, not as a prediction but as a way of considering possibilities. Today, let's reverse course and consider the possibility of a recession.

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Changing Political Trends: The U.S. and Europe

March 15, 2016


The news here in the U.S. is all about the election. In Europe, it’s all about the migrant crisis and the politics surrounding it, at both the national and EU levels.

In many ways, the U.S. election and those in European countries boil down to the same thing: the conflict between the nation—defined as the people who “belong” thereand those who don’t belong.

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Monday Update: Quiet But Positive

March 14, 2016

There were no major economic data releases last week but a number of minor ones. News was generally positive, despite some weak spots.

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Are You Ready for . . . the Coming Economic Boom?

March 11, 2016

One way to think about what’s next is to consider what no one is really talking about. We have heard so much about recessions, global economic collapse, the oil market, and so forth that you could be forgiven for believing the world is coming to an end.

That’s not the case, of course. At least here in the U.S., things have been getting consistently better, at an accelerating rate. But is anyone taking that seriously? Given current conditions, it’s not unreasonable to consider that an economic boom could be on the way.

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ECB Stimulus: A Desperate Move?

March 10, 2016

I wrote the other day about the next crisis and why it might well come from Europe. The news from the European Central Bank this morning reinforces my convictions. Although markets seem to be cheering the announcement of more stimulus, to me it looks like one more sign of increasing systemic stress.

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The Presidential Election and Free Trade

March 9, 2016

Today’s economic news comes straight from the campaign trail, but it might not be the news you think. The big story is that opposition to free trade is now a major vote winnerand an issue that stands to affect the policies of both parties.

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The Stock Market: Reasons for Optimism

March 8, 2016

As the market creeps back up, investors may be inclined to doubt the recovery. After all, there must have been a reason for the pullback we just saw. Couldn’t stocks drop again for the very same reason?

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

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