The Independent Market Observer

Economic Risk Factor Update: December 2016

December 7, 2016

In the wake of the election, many of the economic indicators we track here each month saw substantial improvement. There was some weakness going into the election, but the news since then has been stronger. Although job growth continues to tick down, consumer confidence has rebounded in a big way, and business confidence has also continued to move higher.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Should I Invest Outside the U.S.?

December 6, 2016

With U.S. stocks surging to new highs and trouble brewing elsewhere in the world (the failed Italian referendum and resignation of Matteo Renzi, not to mention the continued decline in the Chinese currency), I’ve been getting questions about whether investors should just stay here in the USA.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monday Update: More Strong Data for Consumers and Business

December 5, 2016

Last week’s economic reports were surprisingly strong, with both consumer and business data beating expectations, often by significant amounts. These results support the idea that the economy continues to improve—and that the improvement appears to be accelerating.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Should You Be Worried About the Strong Dollar?

December 2, 2016

A speech I give regularly starts out with a series of worries investors have had in recent years. Four years ago, for example, we had three major concerns: the dollar was incredibly weak, oil prices were way too high, and China was a rising power. More recently (say, a year ago), we also had three major worries: the dollar was far too strong, oil prices were too low, and China was collapsing.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Market Thoughts for December 2016 [Video]

December 2, 2016

Looking back on last month, the first word that comes to mind is wow . . .

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Problems . . .

December 1, 2016

I’ve been pretty optimistic about the U.S. economy and stock markets over the past couple of weeks, and I stand by that. Almost all of the news is surprisingly good and likely to improve even further.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

The Stock Market's Rise: Will It Continue?

November 30, 2016

Over the past couple of weeks, everyone’s been wondering how long the stock market's “Trump bounce” will last. Several people have asked me whether a pullback is due and how bad it might be. Even as markets move higher, there is quite a bit of worry.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Market Records and Your Investments

November 29, 2016

The stock market keeps hitting new highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 19,000 for the first time last week, and the S&P 500 is up to 2,200, itself a record. In many ways, the market is off to the races.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monday Update: Home Sales and Business Orders Strong

November 28, 2016

Overall, last week’s data was quite positive. Existing home sales did very well, while there were signs that business investment is looking up. Although the news was not all good, most of it was.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Black Friday by the Numbers

November 25, 2016

With everyone out shopping today, we'll soon be seeing the usual slew of Black Friday data (and the instant economic analysis that goes along with it). 

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Subscribe via Email

AI_Community_Podcast_Thumb - 1

 

Episode 14
December 17, 2025

Episode 13
November 19, 2025

Episode 12
October 14, 2025

Episode 11
September 10, 2025

Episode 10
August 13, 2025

More


Hot Topics



New Call-to-action

Archives

see all

Subscribe


Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member FINRASIPC

Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®