Trade and tariffs just made the front pages in a big way with the confrontation between the U.S. and other countries at the recent G7 summit. Terms like trade war are being thrown around, and Canada (Canada!) is openly threatening retaliation. So, now seems a good time to take a look at what is really happening—and what it might mean for us and our investments.

With emerging markets hitting the headlines once again, today we have a great piece from Commonwealth analyst Anu Gaggar on what is going on and—more important—what to do about it. Take it away, Anu! — Brad

There were only two major economic news releases last week, but the week ahead will be a busy one.

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for June? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

May’s data improved over an already solid April. Job growth accelerated further, and consumer confidence remained strong. Business confidence also bounced back, taking the trend back to positive territory. Finally, Fed policy continues to be stimulative, which is helpful despite the likely rate increase this month. Overall, the economic data indicates that growth continues and that the recent soft spot may be passing.

This will be a short post as I am traveling. I spent last weekend in London, where I saw (to my delight!) not one but several black swans.

As we head further into June, let’s take a moment to look back at May’s economic news, plus what to expect in the month ahead.

Last week’s reports gave us a broad look at the economy, from employment to manufacturing. This week, we will see two major releases.

May was a good month, continuing the recovery from the pullback we saw at the start of the year. In the U.S., markets were up almost across the board. Consumers continue to spend, and businesses remain confident—with manufacturing doing particularly well. Plus, the government is contributing to this growth by cutting taxes and spending more.

Much of the economic data suggests that the slowdown in the first quarter is passing—this morning’s personal spending report is a good example. But, as always, what matters most for the economy is jobs.