The Independent Market Observer

Market Down Again, But Signs Remain Positive

June 26, 2018

Yesterday was a bad day for the U.S. stock market. But is it time to worry yet? The short answer is, “probably not.” “Not” because the economic and earnings fundamentals remain sound. “Probably” because the slow progression of trade worries may be starting to shake market confidence. The longer answer, however, gets more into the details.

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Monday Update: Housing Data Shows Signs of Slowing

June 25, 2018

Last week's economic reports were all about housing, and we’ll get some insight on the consumer in the week ahead.

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China and Technology

June 22, 2018

After our series on tariffs and trade wars, one topic remains that doesn’t really fit into that discussion: China and technology. One of the very real issues that often comes up in trade talks is what the U.S. can or should do about the fact that China is making a deliberate attempt, by hook or by crook, to acquire technology that it can use to compete with the U.S. Surely, this problem has to be considered when we look at trade.

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Italy: Reflections from an Informed Observer

June 21, 2018

Brad here. One of the problems we have in the U.S. is that we are largely forced to rely on the media to cover events abroad. While useful, this reporting can miss important details about what is really going on, as anyone who has been at an event and then later read coverage can attest.

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RIP General Electric

June 20, 2018

One of the big pieces of news in the financial world today focuses on General Electric (GE). The iconic American conglomerate has been removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and its stock will no longer be included when the index is calculated. It will be replaced by the drugstore chain Walgreens.

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Tariffs and Trade Wars: Part 4

June 19, 2018

As we close out this series on tariffs and trade wars, let’s review what we’ve covered so far.

There is a case to be made for modifying the existing world trade system, and there are systemic imbalances and costs that need to be rectified. That being said, we need to ensure that we maintain as many of the good things about the current system as we can because, despite the costs, the U.S. is actually in a very favorable position overall.

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Monday Update: Inflation and Retail Sales on the Rise

June 18, 2018

Last week was a busy one for economic reports. The week ahead will be a bit slower, although we will get some news on housing.

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Tariffs and Trade Wars: Part 3

June 15, 2018

We closed part 2 of this series with a summary of the benefits of the current system of open trade: peace, prosperity, and, for the U.S., control of the world system. Although this has come at substantial financial and trade cost to the U.S., this cost has been more than offset by the benefits. Indeed, everyone has won from the current system.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, June 14, 2018 [Video]

June 14, 2018

Earlier today, I appeared on CNBC's Power Lunch to discuss the Fed’s most recent rate hike and its impact on the markets. Listen in to learn more.

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Tariffs and Trade Wars: Part 2

June 14, 2018

In part 1 of this series, we discussed how, overall, tariffs can create localized benefits (e.g., helping a particular industry), but they do so by imposing higher costs on the rest of the economy. We also discussed the wider implications—primarily that when a country imposes tariffs, there is a real possibility that other countries will retaliate. This leads to a vicious circle that leaves everyone worse off. Economically, tariffs don’t make a lot of sense.

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