The Independent Market Observer

The View from the Aisle: Reflections from the Massachusetts Conference for Women

December 27, 2019

Recently, along with some very dynamic colleagues and friends from Commonwealth Financial Network, I had the privilege of attending the Massachusetts Conference for Women. Held in Boston over a packed two days in December, it was the largest women’s conference in the country, boasting more than 13,000 attendees. Here, Giovanna Zaffina and I would like to share our experiences and thoughts.

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The Next Decade: A Humble Approach to Predictions

December 26, 2019

I have been thinking a lot about the next decade. As we enter 2020, we know only a couple of things, but we should keep them in mind as we plan ahead.

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Monday Update: Economy Picking Up Speed

December 23, 2019

Last week, economic updates were largely positive, with seven of the eight releases beating forecasts. This week will be very quiet, with only two major updates scheduled, both on Monday morning.  

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Do You Believe in the Santa Claus Rally?

December 20, 2019

Brad here. At this time of year, we hear a lot about seasonal effects, with the Santa Claus rally at the head of the list. Today, Jim McAllister, director of equity research, takes a look at how much is fiction and how much is fact when it comes to the Santa Claus rally. Thanks, Jim!

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Brexit: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

December 19, 2019

Brad here. One of the big political and economic news stories in the past week or so has been the British election. Here to help put that election into context—and think about what it could mean for our investments—is Anu Gaggar, Commonwealth’s international analyst. Thanks, Anu!

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Is Credit a Cause for Concern?

December 18, 2019

Brad here. One of the great things about this blog is that it sparks quite a few questions. When we see the same question popping up, it is something we try to address. Today’s post, by Nick Follett, does just that, looking at some of the dislocations in the financial markets that have been worrying advisors. It is a bit more inside baseball than we normally do here, but it gives a good look at what is really going on. Thanks, Nick!

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Appearance on Yahoo Finance's On the Move, December 18, 2019 [Video]

December 18, 2019

Do I think we’re going to avoid a recession next year? I discussed this and more today on Yahoo Finance’s On the Move.

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2020 Market Outlook [Video]

December 17, 2019

After a strong 2019, worries are starting to build for the year ahead—especially over a potential recession. But the data is actually improving. As such, 2020 may look much like 2019. Job growth might slow, but consumers are likely to keep spending. Plus, business investment is showing signs of a comeback, which would be a significant tailwind. The news for the markets may not be as positive, as we may see some volatility. But as long as the economy keeps growing? The markets should continue to move forward.

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Monday Update: Home Builder Confidence Blows Away Expectations

December 16, 2019

Last week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at its final meeting of the year. Muted inflation and falling unemployment support this wait-and-see approach from the central bank. This week will be filled with economic updates, including reports on the housing sector and industrial production. Regarding consumers, we’ll get a look at income, spending, and confidence numbers.

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Impeachment Means Nothing for the Markets

December 13, 2019

This morning, the U.S. House Committee on the Judiciary voted to advance two articles of impeachment against President Trump to a vote by the full House of Representatives. The forthcoming event will mark only the fourth time in U.S. history that the full House has been set to consider impeaching a president. If, as is likely, the House votes to impeach, the trial will take place in the Senate, where President Trump is expected to be acquitted. Although this political shock from Washington, DC, has been widely anticipated, it’s still driving headlines now that it has occurred. But, despite the frenzy, it’s an open question whether we should care. As citizens, we certainly should. As investors—no. 

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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