The Independent Market Observer

Market Thoughts for December 2019 [Video]

December 3, 2019

November was another great month for U.S. markets, although international markets didn’t fare as well. Still, the news was positive given the worrying headlines on the Hong Kong riots and the ongoing trade dispute. Here in the U.S., consumer confidence remained at a strong level, and business confidence bounced back. Plus, job growth beat expectations, and new home sales were up.

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Appearance on CNBC's The Exchange, December 2, 2019 [Video]

December 3, 2019

What should we expect from the markets in 2020? Yesterday, I appeared on CNBC's The Exchange to discuss this and much more.

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Monday Update: Third-Quarter GDP Growth Beats Expectations

December 2, 2019

Last week was filled with economic updates, as we finished out the month of November. The highlight was the second estimate of third-quarter GDP growth, which showed faster economic growth than previously reported. This week, data releases will focus on business and consumer confidence, international trade, and November’s employment report.

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The View from the Aisle: The 2–10 Treasury Spread

November 29, 2019

Brad here. Today, we’re launching a new monthly column in which members of Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team will share their learnings and viewpoints on various topics with you. Our first post is from Nicholas Follett, manager of fixed income. Enjoy!

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A Time to Give Thanks

November 27, 2019

It has been proven that being grateful is one of the best ways to make your life better—to be both happier and more successful. Here on the blog, I try to focus on gratitude a couple of times a year. Of course, Thanksgiving is the perfect occasion to take a break and think about all the things we have to be grateful for.

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12 Record Highs for the S&P: What Does It All Mean?

November 26, 2019

This morning, I saw a commentary piece that pointed out we have had 12 record highs for the S&P 500 in the past month. A record is usually a big deal, and I often get calls to comment on what it all means. But I have to admit, I did not realize there had been that many in the past month. So, what does this series of highs mean, if anything?

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Monday Update: Housing Stays Hot, Consumer Confidence Jumps

November 25, 2019

Last week, the housing sector continued its recent rebound, as low interest rates and increasing consumer confidence helped deliver potential home buyers to the market. Despite the holiday, this week will be busy again. Tuesday and Wednesday are packed with economic updates as we head toward month-end.

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What Can History Teach Us About Today’s Marijuana Industry?

November 22, 2019

Brad here. One of the hot topics in the past year or so has been marijuana investing. Stocks have soared—and crashed. So, how can we know what to do if we want to invest? Peter Roberto, an investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, went back to history for some guidance. This perspective is a great way to think about this problem, and many others. Over to you, Peter.

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The Death of Retail?

November 21, 2019

One of the consistent narratives that has been playing out in the investing world is the death of retail. With Amazon and other online retailers continuing to grow and take market share, the world of brick and mortar has been said to be dying a slow and largely well-deserved death. Sears is the poster child here, with the once dominant retailer collapsing. (In that case, however, Amazon doesn’t seem to be the primary cause.) Other retailers have also taken hit after hit, and their stock prices have generally trended down. This trend is seen as something new and different—and something to worry about. The death of retail!

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Risk Focus: Domestic Politics

November 20, 2019

When you read the papers and watch the news, you won’t see much about economics. With earnings season just about over and with the major economic reports looking a bit better, investors don’t have a lot of data to worry about—at least until the next set of releases. Instead, now we are worrying about politics.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

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