The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update: Consumer and Manufacturer Confidence Fall

January 6, 2020

Last week, we saw both consumer and manufacturer confidence fall unexpectedly in December, despite minutes from the Fed’s December meeting showing central bankers are satisfied with the current economic expansion. This week marks a return to normal for economic updates following two holiday-shortened weeks. We’ll be focusing on international trade, service sector confidence, and the December jobs report.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

What Would a War with Iran Mean for the Markets?

January 3, 2020

The news this morning that a top Iranian commander was killed in a U.S. drone strike sent global markets reeling. According to news reports, Iran is now vowing to retaliate, which means terrorism and cyberattacks are likely. Here in the U.S., apparently, Congress was not notified of the strike ahead of time. The heightened risk factors we must now consider include increased domestic political dysfunction, a rising risk of military action (either by us or against us in an already troubled area), and a probable disruption of the oil markets.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Market Thoughts for January 2020 [Video]

January 2, 2020

We closed out the year and the decade on a burst of strength. December was a great month, and it capped a great 2019. U.S. markets were up more than 2 percent and, in some cases, considerably more than that. For the year, they were up more than 20 percent. International markets also had a strong year. In December, job growth came in much better than expected, continuing a trend that has more and more people joining the labor force. For the ninth month in a row, both income and spending went up. The housing sector did very well, and there’s a lot of confidence baked into that. So, December was a great handoff to 2020.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Approaching Economics with Humor: Some Favorite Videos

December 31, 2019

I suspect not too much work will get done today, at least in my house, so let’s have some fun. Below are links to some of my favorite economic and investing videos. In true economist fashion, I have categorized them appropriately. Note that I may not agree with the content—especially for the funny ones! Start at the top.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monday Update: Durable Goods Orders Down, New Home Sales Up

December 30, 2019

Last week was slow on the economic update front, with only two major updates being released. This week will also be quiet as we finish 2019 and enter the new year. We’ll be focusing on consumer and manufacturer confidence, as well as the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting in December. 

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Appearance on CNBC’s Power Lunch, December 27, 2019 [Video]

December 30, 2019

Do I think there’s a market pullback ahead? I appeared on CNBC’s Power Lunch on Friday to discuss this and more. 

Continue reading → Leave a comment

The View from the Aisle: Reflections from the Massachusetts Conference for Women

December 27, 2019

Recently, along with some very dynamic colleagues and friends from Commonwealth Financial Network, I had the privilege of attending the Massachusetts Conference for Women. Held in Boston over a packed two days in December, it was the largest women’s conference in the country, boasting more than 13,000 attendees. Here, Giovanna Zaffina and I would like to share our experiences and thoughts.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

The Next Decade: A Humble Approach to Predictions

December 26, 2019

I have been thinking a lot about the next decade. As we enter 2020, we know only a couple of things, but we should keep them in mind as we plan ahead.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monday Update: Economy Picking Up Speed

December 23, 2019

Last week, economic updates were largely positive, with seven of the eight releases beating forecasts. This week will be very quiet, with only two major updates scheduled, both on Monday morning.  

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Do You Believe in the Santa Claus Rally?

December 20, 2019

Brad here. At this time of year, we hear a lot about seasonal effects, with the Santa Claus rally at the head of the list. Today, Jim McAllister, director of equity research, takes a look at how much is fiction and how much is fact when it comes to the Santa Claus rally. Thanks, Jim!

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Subscribe via Email

AI_Community_Podcast_Thumb - 1

 

Episode 14
December 17, 2025

Episode 13
November 19, 2025

Episode 12
October 14, 2025

Episode 11
September 10, 2025

Episode 10
August 13, 2025

More


Hot Topics



New Call-to-action

Archives

see all

Subscribe


Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member FINRASIPC

Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®