The Independent Market Observer

First Wave of Economic Damage: 3 Million New Unemployment Claims

March 26, 2020

As expected, the initial jobless claims report—the one that shows how many people have been laid off and are newly applying for unemployment assistance—was a shocker this morning. Three million people lost their jobs and applied for unemployment last week. This is by far the highest number ever, with the previous record at just under 700,000 in 1982.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Congress Steps Up for the Economy

March 25, 2020

The Fed stepped up early and hard for the coronavirus crisis. It cut interest rates essentially to zero. It eased restrictions on banks to enable faster and more business lending. Plus, the Fed has taken unlimited measures to support the financial system as a whole, restarting programs from the last crisis to purchase bonds and inject money into the system. Unlike 2008, the Fed has been consistently ahead of the crisis, determined to choke any instability as quickly as possible before the medical crisis transmutes into a financial one. It largely looks like the Fed has been successful. The Fed and monetary policy have done what they can do so far, and they are poised to do more as needed.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Coronavirus Update: U.S. Infection Growth Rate Holding Steady

March 24, 2020

Most of today’s headlines center around the rapidly growing number of coronavirus cases here in the U.S., with some comment on the fact that the number of cases in Italy also continues to grow rapidly. Occasionally, we also get a note that case growth in China has largely stopped.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Monday Update: Retail Sales Fall Sharply in February

March 23, 2020

Last week’s updates, which touched on a broad cross section of the economy, mostly showed solid, fundamental improvements during February. That noted, the surprise rate cut by the Fed and a sharp drop in retail sales highlight the effect that the coronavirus will likely have on future reports. This week will be another busy one, with important reports on business and consumer confidence expected to draw the most attention.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

The Coronavirus Pandemic and the Financial Markets

March 20, 2020

We have spent the past couple of days first looking at the coronavirus pandemic itself and then at the likely economic effects. Which brings us to the third part of our discussion: market reactions. Now, we have the context to look at what has happened and think meaningfully about what might happen next.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Coronavirus Update: March 19, 2020 [Video]

March 19, 2020

Today, I'd like to share my framework for thinking about the coronavirus crisis, focusing on the virus itself, its economic effects, and the market implications. Viewed through this lens, it seems the virus is controllable, as seen in China and South Korea. Further, the widespread panic has been a positive, enabling governments to put effective restrictions in place.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Assessing the Economic Damage from the Coronavirus Pandemic

March 19, 2020

Yesterday, we talked about how the coronavirus pandemic itself can be brought under control, and how in many countries it already has been. Here in the U.S., we are not there yet, but we can reasonably expect to get there in the next month or so. That is the good news.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Appearance on Fox Business Network’s The Claman Countdown, March 18, 2020 [Video]

March 19, 2020

What should investors do given the market turbulence created by coronavirus fears? Yesterday, I appeared on Fox Business Network's The Claman Countdown to discuss this and more.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

The Coronavirus Pandemic: A Solvable Problem?

March 18, 2020

Yesterday, we talked about the big picture around the coronavirus crisis: the pandemic itself, the likely economic effects, and, last but certainly not least, the market reactions. Next, I want to start a more detailed discussion of each component. We will deal with the pandemic today, the economy tomorrow, and the markets on Friday. Although the big picture provides valuable context, there is also quite a bit to be gained by diving deeper into each component.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

How to Think About the Coronavirus Pandemic: The Big Picture

March 17, 2020

With everything that is happening in the world, now is a good time to step back and think about where we are and where we might be going. There is a tremendous amount of information available. But what’s missing is a framework for that information that would help clarify the big picture.

Continue reading → Leave a comment

Subscribe via Email

AI_Community_Podcast_Thumb - 1

 

Episode 9
July 23, 2025

Episode 8
June 18, 2025

Episode 7
May 14, 2025

Episode 6
April 23, 2025

More


Hot Topics



New Call-to-action

Archives

see all

Subscribe


Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member FINRASIPC

Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®