The Independent Market Observer

Appearance on Yahoo Finance’s On the Move, May 28, 2020 [Video]

May 28, 2020

How has the coronavirus impacted jobless claims and the markets? I discussed this and more today on Yahoo Finance’s On the Move.

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COVID-19: What We Know and How We Know It

May 27, 2020

Recently, I’ve gotten some questions on news reports that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and many states have been conflating two different types of COVID-19 tests in their reporting. The substance of both the news reports and the subsequent questions was that this conflation made the data unreliable and that the situation could be worse—with respect to the virus and the pandemic—than we had thought. Indeed, it is a reasonable concern. And given that I use various coronavirus data here on the blog, I thought it would be worth writing about what we know about the virus and how we know it.

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Monday Update (on Tuesday): Housing Hit Hard by Pandemic in April

May 26, 2020

Last week continued to show the devastating effect that the pandemic had on the economy in April, with many of the updates focusing on weakness in the housing sector during the month. This will be a jam-packed week of economic reports, with updates scheduled that touch on wide swaths of the economy.

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Appearance on CNBC's The Exchange, May 22, 2020 [Video]

May 26, 2020

Last Friday, I appeared on CNBC’s The Exchange to discuss the economy and the markets. Listen in to hear more.

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Coronavirus Update: May 22, 2020 [Video]

May 22, 2020

Today, I'd like to give an update on the coronavirus pandemic, including its effects on the economy and markets. There was some good news on the pandemic front, with daily testing numbers continuing to rise. We didn’t see as much progress in the daily spread rate and the number of new cases, with both remaining relatively stable. Here, the results may be better than they look, as we didn’t get a bump in new cases even though the economy started to reopen. In fact, the economic reopening seems to be going better than many expected. The restaurant business has started to tick up, and mortgage applications have just about returned to 2019 levels.

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Is the Latest Coronavirus News Better Than It Looks?

May 21, 2020

This past week revealed a mix of improvement and stabilization in the COVID-19 pandemic. While testing continues to expand, the progress in slowing the spread rate and case growth has stalled, leaving both at levels consistent with the past two weeks. The number of active cases has started to grow again, which is a negative. Overall, conditions remain much better than they have been in recent weeks, but we did not see much, if any, additional progress in controlling the virus.

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Confessions of an ESG Investing Skeptic

May 20, 2020

Today’s post on ESG investing comes from Brian Price, senior vice president of investment management and research here at Commonwealthand a self-proclaimed ESG investing skeptic. Over to you, Brian!

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Value Vs. Valuation: A Dilemma for Emerging Market Investors

May 19, 2020

Brad here. One of the most common questions I get from investors is where to invest. Stocks, bonds, or something else? Are things different this time, and how should we react? And, perhaps most relevant, should we invest in the U.S. or abroad? Anu Gaggar, Commonwealth’s international analyst, spends her days thinking about how—and whether—to invest abroad, and this post provides a timely and very useful guide to how she is thinking about emerging markets. Thanks, Anu!

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Monday Update: Retail Sales and Industrial Production Plunge

May 18, 2020

Last week’s economic updates continued to show the devastating impact that shelter-in-place orders had on the economy in April, highlighted by historically bad retail sales and industrial production reports. This week will be relatively quiet for economic updates, with the focus on housing, the FOMC minutes, and the weekly initial jobless claims report.

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Coronavirus Update: May 15, 2020 [Video]

May 15, 2020

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus crisis, including the economic and market implications. It was another good week in terms of controlling the virus, with the daily spread rate dropping to less than 2 percent for five days in a row. Plus, testing increased to more than 300,000 tests per day, and the number of new cases per day continued to decline significantly. Similar progress was seen on the economic front. Layoffs continued, but millions of people have started to return to work—one of the positive effects of the reopening process. Of course, risks remain, with a second wave of infections looming the largest. But the foundation of the economy is starting to be rebuilt.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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