The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Longest Economic Expansion in U.S. History Ends

May 5, 2020

Last week saw the release of several important economic updates, with the initial look at economic growth in the first quarter drawing much of the attention. The pace of reports this week will be slower, but the release of April’s employment report on Friday will be closely monitored.

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Market Thoughts for May 2020 [Video]

May 4, 2020

In April, U.S. markets were up by double digits. Still, the economic damage continued. Millions of jobs were lost, and businesses shut down. But we did see progress. The spread of the virus slowed, and testing increased. Plus, federal stimulus provided funds to individuals and businesses. The markets noted these improvements, bouncing back in April. In fact, the markets expect a full recovery in about a year. Are they right?

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Coronavirus Update: May 1, 2020 [Video]

May 1, 2020

Today, I'd like to discuss where we are in the coronavirus crisis, including a look at the virus itself, the economy, and the market.

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Markets Are Confident—But Are They Right?

April 30, 2020

As we did last week, I’d like to provide an update on where we are in the coronavirus crisis. This week, the news has generally been good. The virus continues to come under control, with the growth rate slowing (although the case count has not declined as much). Some states are reopening their economies, which will give us valuable data and should help with employment. Finally, the markets have continued to rally but may have gotten a bit ahead of themselves. Let’s take a closer look.

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Is Runaway Inflation an Inevitability?

April 29, 2020

With the Fed’s regular meeting concluding today, expectations are that the central bank will continue to provide whatever stimulus is necessary to keep the economy afloat. In conjunction with the federal government’s unprecedented multi-trillion dollar stimulus program, fears are rising that inflation is coming both fast and hard—and that we, as investors, need to plan now for this inevitability. I don’t believe it.

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Bonds Broke—Now What?

April 28, 2020

Brad here. Today, Nick Follett, manager of fixed income on our Investment Management and Research team, is here to discuss what's happening with bonds and the fixed income market. Over to you, Nick!

About one month ago, the bond market broke. Equities were down, as was fixed income—at exactly the time when you would expect and need it to be up. The 10-year U.S. Treasury, which started the year at 1.90 percent, fell from 1.10 percent (on March 2) to 54 basis points (bps) just one week later. There were concerns about every aspect of the financial system, from money market funds to the system itself. Indiscriminate selling forced down all fixed income classes as even the most liquid Treasuries, municipal bonds, and investment-grade corporates saw few if any buyers for the inordinate number of sellers.

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Appearance on Yahoo Finance's The Final Round, April 28, 2020 [Video]

April 28, 2020

I appeared on Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round to discuss the impact of coronavirus on the market. Listen in to hear more.

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Monday Update: Lowered Expectations Lead to Better-Than-Expected Results

April 27, 2020

The economic data released last week largely came in above forecasts, primarily due to very low expectations by economists rather than significantly better economic activity. This week will be another busy one. We’ll get our first look at first-quarter GDP growth, the personal spending and income reports for March, and the weekly initial jobless claims report. Updates on consumer and manufacturer confidence will also be highlighted.

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Coronavirus Update: April 24, 2020 [Video]

April 24, 2020

Today, I'd like to discuss where we are in the coronavirus crisis and what that means for the economy and markets. We’ve seen significant progress in terms of the virus, with the daily case growth rate dropping below 4 percent for several days in a row. Further, the number of tests given has risen from about 150,000 to 300,000 per day. As we turn to the economy, the news is more of a mixed bag. Jobless claims are still very high, although this damage may have started to peak. Plus, with measures like the Paycheck Protection Program and stimulus checks, both individuals and businesses are getting some much-needed relief.

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Appearance on CNBC's The Exchange, April 23, 2020 [Video]

April 23, 2020

Is the recent market stumble something to worry about? I discuss this and more on CNBC’s The Exchange.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

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