Brad here. Today, my colleague Nate Parker, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, provides insights on the oil markets and why U.S. prices recently dropped into negative territory. Enjoy!

Today, I'd like to take another look at where we are with containing the COVID-19 pandemic. Since last week, there has been real progress on many fronts, although concerns remain.

Now that it looks like the coronavirus is starting to come under control (and I will do another update here tomorrow), it is time to think about what is coming next for the markets. We have had the fastest onset of a bear market in history, followed by the fastest recovery into a bull market in history. This kind of volatility is, well, historic. But since it is unprecedented, we can’t really look back at history for guidance as to what happens next.

The economic data released last week came in largely worse than expected, highlighting the very real headwinds the economy is facing with the majority of the country effectively shut down. March’s retail sales and industrial production reports were two of the most disappointing releases, but the weakness was widespread. This week will again be packed with important reports, with highlights on housing sales, business and consumer sentiment, and business spending. We’ll also look closely at the weekly initial unemployment claims.

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus crisis, including its effects on the economy and markets. With regard to the virus itself, we’re seeing signs of progress. This week, the daily spread rate dipped below 5 percent, and the number of new cases per day started to stabilize. With this good news on the pandemic front, the focus is shifting to how to reopen the economy. Here, the news is not as good. With more than 22 million jobs lost over the past several weeks and many businesses remaining closed, the damage is mounting.

Brad here. In today's post, Peter Essele, vice president of investment management and research, provides some perspective on the latest jobless claims numbers—and what we might expect going forward.

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

Some good news to report today: the coronavirus curve has been flattened. Now, you might wonder how I can say this when the cases continue to rise. In fact, no one has really come up with a definition of what “flattening the curve” means. So, from my perspective, it’s when the daily case growth rate declines enough that, despite the increased base of cases each day, the number of new cases declines. That scenario has now happened for several days in a row.

The data releases last week were disappointing but not surprising, given the headwinds created by the widespread efforts to combat the spread of the coronavirus. Six million Americans filed for initial unemployment claims for the second week in a row, and the drop in consumer sentiment set a record. This week will be packed with important updates, with an emphasis on the March retail sales report on Wednesday and the weekly initial jobless claims report on Thursday.

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!