The Independent Market Observer

Tom Logue, CFA®

Tom Logue is an investment research analyst in the Investment Management and Research group at Commonwealth Financial Network®, member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser–broker/dealer. With the firm since September 2022, Tom researches and analyzes equity-based investments, summarizes findings, and compiles comprehensive research and recommendation reports. He earned his bachelor’s degree in business administration from Saint Michael’s College and holds the CFA® designation.

Recent Posts

A Start to Remember for the Markets

March 1, 2024

In my last blog, I talked about how strong Januarys historically tend to lead to strong returns throughout the remainder of the year. But I also noted there could be a bit of volatility in February. To my surprise, this turned out to be one of the better Februarys the S&P 500 has ever had, finishing the month up 5.17 percent.

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Market Outlook: Strong January, Strong Year?

February 1, 2024

Thus far, market momentum has carried over from 2023 into 2024. Things started slow, with the S&P 500 closing down more than 1.5 percent during the first week of the year. But it has since rebounded sharply, hitting several new all-time highs in the process and closing the month of January up 1.59 percent.

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Can Market Momentum Continue into the Election Year?

January 10, 2024

Today, I’d like to revisit a key point from my November blog post—the market’s run to end the year—and then cap it off with some historical election year data.

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Will December’s S&P 500 Return Matter for 2024?

November 30, 2023

In my October blog post, I concluded by stating that in an intermediate time frame, things looked shaky for markets. Still, I firmly believed that the S&P 500 was undergoing a correction and that the uptrend would resume in due course. Indeed, since October 31, the S&P 500 is up more than 8 percent and the Nasdaq is up more than 10 percent.

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Bear Market or Intermediate Correction?

October 31, 2023

In my last blog post on whether markets might rally by year-end, I detailed a few technical indicators that suggested taking a cautious approach, as well as a reason for potential optimism. Today, I’d like to provide updates on two of those indicators, introduce new data, and wrap up with some thoughts on where we go from here.

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Will Markets Rally by Year-End?

October 4, 2023

In my last blog post, the topic of discussion was the bumpy ride markets took in August but how historical data indicated a potentially strong finish to the year. Indeed, August was tough, but September was even worse. As a result, many investors have growing concerns about the current state of the markets—a normal reaction, to be sure.

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An Optimistic Outlook for Markets?

August 15, 2023

Brad here. One of the things I have learned is that while history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, it does rhyme—even in the financial markets. My colleague, Tom Logue, is a student of how the market behaves. Here, he lays out some reasons for optimism as we enter the fall. Thanks, Tom, and I hope you are right!

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Will the S&P 500 Keep Rising After Hitting a 52-Week High?

June 29, 2023

Brad here. We just published our Midyear Outlook, and as you saw yesterday, we remain cautious about the market for several reasons. At the same time, over the longer term, the market does tend to go up—and even in the shorter term, there are alternative possibilities to consider.

For most people, that means focusing on the risk, and that’s fine—but it misses half, and possibly more, of the big picture. So, for a look at the potential upside, here’s a great piece from my colleague Tom Logue on why the market may well keep rising, especially over the next year.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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