Monday, March 9, will be the 11th anniversary of the bull market that started back in 2009. With recent pullbacks and turbulence around the coronavirus, it is reasonable to worry that this anniversary will be the last and that a bear market will break the streak sometime in the next year. As such, now seems a good time to consider where we stand—and where the market might be headed.

I know I am coming a bit late to the party on this, as there has already been a great deal of commentary and reaction to yesterday’s unexpected move by the Fed to cut interest rates by half a percentage point. Markets dropped after the announcement, but we are now seeing a strong rally. Pundits are on all sides of the issue. So, what’s really going on?

February was a tough month. Both U.S. and international markets dropped sharply at month-end, as the coronavirus continued to spread across the globe. While the declines are worrisome, previous outbreaks, like Zika and SARS, have resulted in similar outcomes. As such, the markets’ response to the coronavirus can actually be considered normal.

This week has been one of the worst in history for the stock market. With the Dow and S&P 500 now down more than 15 percent from recent highs (of only weeks ago!), fears are rising that this pullback might be the precursor to another crisis. So what should we, as investors, do to protect ourselves? Since panic is never the right answer, we need to think through and understand what is really happening—and what is not.

In yesterday’s post, I pointed out that the markets were taking a break, stopping the sudden slide to think about whether the news surrounding the coronavirus is really as bad as all that. Today, they appear to have decided that, yes, things are that bad and may be even worse. Perhaps, then, it is time for me to reassess my conclusions.

Yesterday, the global financial markets experienced another notable drop, reflecting investor concerns regarding the ongoing spread of the coronavirus. The major U.S. indices went down an additional 3 percent or more. These losses, on top of the drops we saw on Monday, have taken down the market significantly—with the S&P 500 more than 7 percent off its high of four days ago.

It is now clear that the coronavirus has escaped the attempted containment by Chinese authorities and has spread around the world. According to the World Health Organization, there are 79,331 confirmed cases, of which 77,262 are in China and 2,069 are outside of China (as of February 24, 2020). The two largest country clusters are in South Korea (with 232) and Italy (with 64). And many of those numbers seem to be on the rise, with the Washington Post reporting on February 24 that there were 833 confirmed cases in South Korea and 53 confirmed cases in the U.S.

This morning, I stopped to get a card and balloon for my son for Valentine’s Day. I was shocked—once again—at how much the greeting card companies have monetized our need to be loving parents, spouses, and so forth. With these kinds of prices, you would think retail spending would have soared last month. Think again.

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!