--- title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP® (61) description: Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief economist at Commonwealth. As chief economist, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog. (61) --- [![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) [![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/) - [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) - [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/) ## Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP® ![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/McMillan_Brad@2x.png?width=100&name=McMillan_Brad@2x.png) Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief economist at Commonwealth. As chief economist, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog. Find me on: [![](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/linkedin-24x24.png)](https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradmcmillancfa) [![](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/twitter-24x24.png)](https://x.com/BradMcMillanCFA) ### Recent Posts [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2020) ## [Looking Back at the Markets in January and Ahead to February 2020](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2020) February 11, 2020 January was a tough month. We started with a U.S. attack on an Iranian general (creating thoughts of war) and ended with the possibility of a new global pandemic (with the Wuhan coronavirus spreading around the world). In between, of course, we had the impeachment spectacle here in the U.S., as well as the British exit from the European Union. All in all, it was quite a difficult month from a news perspective. Which made it somewhat odd that markets were not hit harder than they were. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2020) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-january-and-ahead-to-february-2020#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Unemployment_3.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/jobs-report-preview-good-news-ahead) ## [Jobs Report Preview: Good News Ahead?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/jobs-report-preview-good-news-ahead) February 6, 2020 Tomorrow, we get the big one, the most (in my opinion) significant economic report of all: the jobs report. So, what should we expect? [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/jobs-report-preview-good-news-ahead) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/jobs-report-preview-good-news-ahead#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/2020-02-05_16-23-06.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/appearance-on-cnbc-february-05-2020-video) ## [Appearance on CNBC’s Power Lunch, February 05, 2020 \[Video\]](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/appearance-on-cnbc-february-05-2020-video) February 6, 2020 From retail sales to housing, we're seeing a real rebound in the economy. I discussed this and more yesterday on CNBC’s [Power Lunch](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/02/05/caution-warranted-in-this-market-strategist.html). [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/appearance-on-cnbc-february-05-2020-video) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/appearance-on-cnbc-february-05-2020-video#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/stock-closeup.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/as-goes-january-so-goes-the-year) ## [As Goes January, So Goes the Year?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/as-goes-january-so-goes-the-year) February 5, 2020 The idea behind the old adage “as goes January, so goes the year” is this: if the market closes up in January, it will be a good year; if the market closes down in January, it will be a bad year. In fact, it is one of the more reliable of the market saws, having been right almost 9 times out of 10 since 1950. Last year, January saw gains of 7.9 percent for the S&P 500 (the best January since 1987), predicting a very good year. Indeed, that is just what we got. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/as-goes-january-so-goes-the-year) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/as-goes-january-so-goes-the-year#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/MktUpdate_BradM_Feb2020_945x529.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-february-2020-video) ## [Market Thoughts for February 2020 \[Video\]](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-february-2020-video) February 4, 2020 The year started with a slight setback, with both U.S. and international markets down. Some of this poor performance was driven by fear over the coronavirus. Although the virus is something to watch, it's not likely to be a long-term risk. Indeed, economic growth in the U.S. has been steady, and business and consumer confidence have improved. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-february-2020-video) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-february-2020-video#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/2020-02-04_9-07-01.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/appearance-on-yahoo-finance-february-03-2020-video) ## [Appearance on Yahoo Finance's On the Move, February 03, 2020 \[Video\]](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/appearance-on-yahoo-finance-february-03-2020-video) February 4, 2020 Yesterday I appeared on Yahoo Finance’s [On the Move](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/stocks-rally-investors-shake-off-180331704.html) to discuss the impact of coronavirus on the market. Listen in to hear more. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/appearance-on-yahoo-finance-february-03-2020-video) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/appearance-on-yahoo-finance-february-03-2020-video#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/news-swipe.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/new-records-and-new-risks) ## [New Records—and New Risks?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/new-records-and-new-risks) January 30, 2020 Two Fridays ago, the S&P 500 hit its closing record. About two weeks ago, the Dow cracked 29,000 for the first time. At the time, the headlines were all about how high the markets could go—and how quickly. But after the past couple of days, with the markets experiencing renewed volatility, we’ve started hearing much less about the new stock market records. Instead, the headlines are all about the risks, which certainly include the [coronavirus](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-china-coronavirus-strike-investments), but also the impeachment trial and [Brexit](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/brexit-day-approaches-what-should-we-expect). [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/new-records-and-new-risks) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/new-records-and-new-risks#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/Europe_4.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/brexit-day-approaches-what-should-we-expect) ## [Brexit Day Approaches: What Should We Expect?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/brexit-day-approaches-what-should-we-expect) January 29, 2020 After years of drama, headlines, predictions of doom, multiple elections, and so forth, we are finally (almost) there: Brexit day. On Friday, the British flag will be lowered outside European Union (EU) buildings as Britain formally exits the union. And so the post-Brexit world will begin. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/brexit-day-approaches-what-should-we-expect) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/brexit-day-approaches-what-should-we-expect#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2019/news-tablet.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-china-coronavirus-strike-investments) ## [Will the China Coronavirus Strike Investments?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-china-coronavirus-strike-investments) January 24, 2020 One of the potential disruptors of the generally positive economic news surfaced in the form of a viral outbreak in China last week. Known as the coronavirus, as of this morning, there were 895 cases in mainland China (mostly in the Wuhan area) and 26 deaths, for a mortality rate of less than 3 percent. There were also at least 20 other cases around the world, including 1 case here in the U.S. The comparison that is being made is to the last major new disease from China, SARS, in 2003. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-china-coronavirus-strike-investments) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-china-coronavirus-strike-investments#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/global_economy_6.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-china-phase-one-deal-spell-the-end-of-the-trade-wars) ## [Will the China Phase One Deal Spell the End of the Trade Wars?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-china-phase-one-deal-spell-the-end-of-the-trade-wars) January 23, 2020 With the recent signing of the phase one trade deal with China, the sense has been that everything is all set, and we can now move on. There is some truth to this belief, as the deal is better than nothing. Still, the agreement leaves many issues unresolved and even creates some new ones. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-china-phase-one-deal-spell-the-end-of-the-trade-wars) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/will-the-china-phase-one-deal-spell-the-end-of-the-trade-wars#comments-listing) [Previous](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/brad-mcmillan-cfa-caia-mai/page/60) [Next](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/brad-mcmillan-cfa-caia-mai/page/62) ### Subscribe via Email ![TMO\_IMO\_615x408\_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar") [Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) June 17, 2026 [Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) May 13, 2026 [Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) April 15, 2026 [Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) March 18, 2026 [Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) February 11, 2026 [More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements) [![Insights\_CTA\_IMO\_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLI13VkvFSXQlfhF5qs7MAVHK0hvMZfEQorgH32U1sIh7u5KLXp2koNjVupBOLkADSAneOY5eR9D9l5rDaLHI8gs1tf5WCLtOuisUOYDRLBanuRsjJV0fuSX4W9cWpvjVCH90ftU8N%2FYt2Mll0crkAOM%2FwoBQls46GIY1mMQ7YoMk1kOOFprm3A%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024) ### Hot Topics Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy [![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf) ### Archives - 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