Greetings from Norway!

After a great three days in Oslo, we’re on the train stopped at Ål on our way to Flåm, up in the fjord country. Based on my time here so far, Norway is a wonderful place: the people are nice, the scenery spectacular, and the weather terrific (at least this time of year).

This is a bit of a speculative post, as I’m writing it a day ahead of time, before the next set of employment numbers comes out. (I’ll be on a plane to Norway for a family vacation when they do.) I may have to revise or retract some of my thoughts here, but hopefully the main points will survive.

The European crisis isn’t over. This is according to a very authoritative source—the European Central Bank, which just took the almost unprecedented step of instituting a negative interest rate, essentially charging banks to deposit money. For the banks, it really has become a case of using their deposits or slowly losing them.

With no major stories breaking today, let’s discuss a few key themes in the news lately.

I’ve written before that there’s generally more downside risk in the stock market than investors expect. One way to account for that is to look at the VIX. 

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I talk about recent volatility in the financial markets and a drop in interest rates. I also offer my thoughts on the U.S. economy, including the recovery and employment.

Today, I’m launching a new series of monthly updates on risk factors that could signal economic trouble ahead. (The data comes in on a regular basis, but its economic significance doesn’t change that quickly.)

The data series highlighted here have proven to be reliable storm signals—and they’re suggesting a pretty nice summer ahead. 

My initial outlook for 2014 was based on an improving economy across the board. As we approach the middle of the year, that forecast is playing out.

If you haven’t already seen the news online, you’ll no doubt see it on tomorrow’s front pages: first-quarter economic growth was revised down from an anemic 0.1-percent gain to a much worse 1-percent loss.

Check out Brad’s interview on Bloomberg Radio’s The Hays Advantage with Kathleen Hays and Vonnie Quinn, where he offers his general outlook on the markets.