The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

5/28/14 – The Real Problem with FATCA

May 28, 2014

My post the other day about the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) generated a lot of interest among readers, both in the U.S. and abroad. In concluding that FATCA wouldn’t have a material effect on the value of the dollar or the U.S. economy, I was addressing a fairly restricted set of circumstances. Given the depth of interest in this topic, and the fact that the law does have serious implications—just not for the dollar—let’s dig in a bit more.

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5/27/14 – Taxes Are Going Up, Inch by Inch

May 27, 2014

I ended last week on a note of shared sacrifice. This week, let’s talk about some of the forms that sacrifice will likely take.

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Mark Your Calendars and Update Your Bookmarks: My Blog Is Moving, June 2, 2014

May 27, 2014

In order to take advantage of some new capabilities and streamlined efficiencies here at Commonwealth, my friends in the Marketing department tell me that my blog will be moving to a new address, http://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer, effective June 2, 2014.

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5/23/14 – Memorial Day Reflections

May 23, 2014

One of the joys of being a father is explaining to Jackson things that I, as an adult, take for granted. Today, we’ve been talking about Memorial Day—not as the start of summer but as a time to remember those who have died so we can live in freedom.

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5/22/14 – Using Benchmarks to Meet Your Investment Goals

May 22, 2014

I’m at the J.P. Morgan Research Summit today. Yesterday’s sessions were excellent, and one discussion seemed particularly applicable in light of my recent posts on moving averages.

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5/21/14 – How Moving Averages Can Fail

May 21, 2014

For the past two days, I’ve focused on moving averages—specifically, how investors can use them as warning signals and how they work to manage risk. Today, we’ll talk about their potential costs and drawbacks, which are common to any type of risk management program.

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5/20/14 – Avoiding Drawdowns: How Moving Averages Actually Work

May 20, 2014

On the topic of using moving averages to avoid risk, one question I often get is, What actually would have happened over the past couple of decades? Everyone has an interest in avoiding a 2000 or 2008, but everyone also knows that market timing doesn’t work.

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5/20/14 – Interview on CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange

May 20, 2014

Check out Brad’s May 20 interview on CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange, where he offers his thoughts on recent U.S. equity market growth and Treasuries.

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5/19/14 – How to Use Moving Averages to Avoid Stock Market Losses

May 19, 2014

One of the major causes of stock market losses is unforeseen declines that make people sell out—often at the worst time. This is one of the reasons I’ve focused much of my recent research on using drawdown (instead of return variance) as a measure of risk. In my opinion, it provides a better metric for real-world investment performance.

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5/9/14 – How to Turn P/E Data into P/E Information

May 19, 2014

The first question you might have, upon seeing that headline, is what’s the difference? Data is simply facts, without meaning or context. Information can be used as a basis to make decisions; it can be acted on.

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

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The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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