--- title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP® (20) description: Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief economist at Commonwealth. As chief economist, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog. (20) --- [![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) [![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/) - [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer) - [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/) ## Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP® ![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/McMillan_Brad@2x.png?width=100&name=McMillan_Brad@2x.png) Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief economist at Commonwealth. As chief economist, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog. Find me on: [![](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/linkedin-24x24.png)](https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradmcmillancfa) [![](https://static.hubspot.com/final/img/common/icons/social/twitter-24x24.png)](https://x.com/BradMcMillanCFA) ### Recent Posts [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Monthly-Risk/monthly-update-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-july-2022) ## [Monthly Market Risk Update: July 2022](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-july-2022) July 13, 2022 My colleague [Sam Millette](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/sam-millette), manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Equity markets experienced widespread sell-offs in June due to rising investor concern about slowing economic growth and persistently high levels of inflation. The S&P 500 lost 8.25 percent during the month, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6.56 percent. The Nasdaq Composite saw the largest decline, as the technology-heavy index was down 8.65 percent in June. The market turbulence capped off a challenging quarter for equities and served as a reminder that real risks remain for markets that should be acknowledged and monitored. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-july-2022) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-july-2022#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Economic-Risk/econRisk-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-july-2022) ## [Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2022](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-july-2022) July 8, 2022 *My colleague* [*Sam Millette*](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/sam-millette)*, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!* [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-july-2022) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-july-2022#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-q2-and-ahead-to-q3-2022) ## [Looking Back at the Markets in Q2 and Ahead to Q3 2022](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-q2-and-ahead-to-q3-2022) July 7, 2022 June was a terrible month for the markets, capping off a disappointing second quarter. The S&P 500 lost 8.25 percent during the month and 16.1 percent for the quarter; the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6.56 percent during the month and ended the quarter down 10.78 percent; and the Nasdaq Composite lost 8.65 percent in June and 22.28 percent for the quarter. The Nasdaq Composite also saw the largest monthly and quarterly declines due to its heavier weighting on beaten-down technology stocks. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-q2-and-ahead-to-q3-2022) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-q2-and-ahead-to-q3-2022#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/2022%20Midyear%20Outlook/IMO%20Blog%20Post%201%20%E2%80%93%201.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2022-midyear-outlook-slow-growth-ahead) ## [2022 Midyear Outlook: Slow Growth Ahead?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2022-midyear-outlook-slow-growth-ahead) July 6, 2022 As we move into the second half of 2022, there are lots of things to worry about. Covid-19 is still spreading, here in the U.S. and worldwide. Inflation is close to 40-year highs, with the Fed tightening monetary policy to fight it. The war in Ukraine continues, threatening to turn into a long-term frozen conflict. And here in the U.S., the midterm elections loom. Looking at the headlines, you might expect the economy to be in rough shape. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2022-midyear-outlook-slow-growth-ahead) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/2022-midyear-outlook-slow-growth-ahead#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Market-Thoughts-July-2022_THUMB.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-july-2022-video) ## [Market Thoughts for July 2022 \[Video\]](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-july-2022-video) July 1, 2022 June was a terrible month, with stock markets in the U.S. and abroad down substantially and developed international markets hit the hardest. The underlying reason? The Fed. With inflation high, the Fed has raised interest rates over the past six months, which has driven the risks of a recession. Still, the economic news is healthy. Companies are hiring, supporting spending growth, and business investment is sound. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-july-2022-video) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/market-thoughts-for-july-2022-video#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Gratitude/gratitude-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/catherine-crowe-mcmillan-a-life-well-lived) ## [Catherine Crowe McMillan: A Life Well Lived](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/catherine-crowe-mcmillan-a-life-well-lived) June 24, 2022 *Today will not be the usual economic content, as I am out of the office for my mother’s memorial service. She passed away almost a month ago, suddenly from a stroke, after fighting Parkinson’s disease for several years. My dad and my family are doing well, all things considered, but today will be a hard one.*  [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/catherine-crowe-mcmillan-a-life-well-lived) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/catherine-crowe-mcmillan-a-life-well-lived#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Politics/elephant%20donkey.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/politics-and-investing) ## [Politics and Investing](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/politics-and-investing) June 23, 2022 First, a confession. I handled a recent comment on the blog badly. A reader wrote in with a question that I read as a political diatribe, and I dismissed it without taking the question itself seriously. I realized that my response was wrong and have since apologized, publicly, in the comment section of that [post](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-bear-is-here). I owe my readers, if I can respond at all, a thoughtful engagement with their issue, and I failed that standard. I will try to do better going forward. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/politics-and-investing) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/politics-and-investing#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Bull-vs-Bear/bullbear-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/black-bear-or-grizzly-bear) ## [Black Bear or Grizzly Bear?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/black-bear-or-grizzly-bear) June 17, 2022 As we discussed yesterday, the [bear is here](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-bear-is-here). We talked about how interest rates, especially the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, will be determinative as to how long and deep the downturn will be, but noted that there was really no telling. Today, I want to take a look back at history and see if there are any clues we can look at. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/black-bear-or-grizzly-bear) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/black-bear-or-grizzly-bear#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Bull-vs-Bear/bullbear-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-bear-is-here) ## [The Bear Is Here](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-bear-is-here) June 16, 2022 We hit a milestone just recently, although it’s certainly not one we wanted to hit. The S&P 500 stock index is now officially in a bear market, down more than 20 percent from its highs. The Nasdaq, of course, has been in a bear market for some time. It is down more than 20 percent, but that is primarily technology, which is notoriously volatile. The S&P 500, which includes the largest and best-known companies across all industries, is a better indicator of market stress overall. The fact that it has moved into the bear phase signifies significant market and economic stress. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-bear-is-here) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-bear-is-here#comments-listing) [![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Monthly-Risk/monthly-update-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-june-2022) ## [Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2022](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-june-2022) June 15, 2022 My colleague [Sam Millette](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/sam-millette), manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Markets sold off in early and mid May due to concerns of slowing economic growth before a late-month rally brought them close to even. The month-end rally led to mixed results for the three major U.S. equity indices. The S&P 500 gained 0.18 percent while the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to notch a 0.33 percent return. The Nasdaq Composite was unable to rebound to positive territory by the end of the month, with the technology-heavy index down 1.93 percent in May. The market turbulence during the month was a reminder that risks remain for markets, and they should be closely monitored. [Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-june-2022) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-june-2022#comments-listing) [Previous](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/brad-mcmillan-cfa-caia-mai/page/19) [Next](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/brad-mcmillan-cfa-caia-mai/page/21) ### Subscribe via Email ![TMO\_IMO\_615x408\_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar") [Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) June 17, 2026 [Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) May 13, 2026 [Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) April 15, 2026 [Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) March 18, 2026 [Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci) February 11, 2026 [More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements) [![Insights\_CTA\_IMO\_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLKFlT49ULvpLFH1SM%2FSeqSta9tD0jrN1Pk%2BIx5bWSLYa1tCH%2BqQuPn3SAyrcK5MtvAb9hOr%2BsePEH0CJ9rBbQVPTHtssudnaOa5lZBkoLWmRoRcHllLkIicCITY%2F7ySVf4tSKA%2BZN2KI9epC8U3aCtQJgz1XwUxeLN%2FxOa7Hr2qCeZM%2Bq02eRyZQUxGNb459%2FndwZfcka7B78c%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024) ### Hot Topics Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy [![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf) ### Archives - 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