The Independent Market Observer

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®, is managing principal, wealth management, and chief investment officer at Commonwealth. As CIO, Brad chairs the investment committee and is a spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. Brad received his BA from Dartmouth College, an MS from MIT, and an MS from Boston College. He has worked as a real estate developer, consultant, and lender; as an investment analyst, manager, and consultant; and as a start-up executive. His professional qualifications include designated membership in the Appraisal Institute, the CFA Institute, and the CAIA Association. He also is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ practitioner. Brad speaks around the country on investment issues and writes for industry publications, as well as for this blog.
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Recent Posts

Monday Update: U.S. Posts Solid Data, China and Greece Settle Down

July 13, 2015

Last week was relatively quiet in U.S. economic news, but the news we did get was generally encouraging. Once again, the top stories came from abroad, as China’s market stabilized and Greece moved closer to exiting the eurozone before reaching a deal over the weekend.

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Policy Maneuvers Losing Power to Steer the Markets

July 10, 2015

Every year or so, I do a postmortem of my analyses and predictions in order to figure out where I was wrong, and how to avoid making those mistakes in the future—a useful, albeit uncomfortable, exercise. One of the biggest mistakes I’ve made in the past decade has been to underestimate the power of governments to influence markets.

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Chaotic Day in the Markets: A Reminder to Plan Ahead

July 9, 2015

Yesterday was a rough one for financial markets across the board. China’s markets dropped again, U.S. markets fell in sympathy, and the New York Stock Exchange shut down with technology problems. It’s the end of the world as we know it!

Or maybe not. Although there are reasons for concern, U.S. investors shouldn’t be too worried—as long as they’ve planned ahead for an eventual downturn.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2015

July 8, 2015

Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. As expected, the data hasn’t changed much from last month—it remains positive in all areas and has continued to improve in many cases—but it’s still important to keep an eye on things.

Heading into July, though, the economic forecast remains sunny.

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The Chinese Stock Market Decline: What It Could Mean for the U.S.

July 7, 2015

As I mentioned yesterday and in my monthly Market Thoughts video, I’m worried about Greece, but in many ways, I’m more concerned about China. We know about China’s slowing economy and the need to transition from infrastructure- and export-led growth to consumer-driven growth, but these are long-term trends and were basically going well.

What’s new—and worrying—is the boom and subsequent plunge in the Chinese stock market.

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Monday Update: U.S. Solid, Greece and China Rock Markets

July 6, 2015

Starting today, I’m introducing a new format for my Monday posts, briefly highlighting key stories from the past week plus items to watch in the week ahead. Of course, I’ll continue to provide more detailed analyses of major topics throughout the week, as situations develop.

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Market Thoughts for July 2015 [Video]

July 6, 2015

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I discuss recent difficulties in the U.S. financial markets, as well as ongoing problems in Greece and China. I also provide an update on U.S. economic performance in June.

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The Truth Behind the 7-Year Market Cycle

July 2, 2015

One of the things I’ve been meaning to do this summer is take an analytical look at the Shemitah, a quasi-biblical prophecy that predicts a crisis every seven years—which means the U.S. is due for “financial ruin” this year.

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Could What’s Happening with Greek Banks Happen Here?

July 1, 2015

Yesterday, a reader wrote in with a question about what might happen to a U.S. citizen’s deposit in a Greek bank. I don’t have the answer, but the question made me think about U.S. bank deposits, which led me to imagine what the next wave of doom-and-gloom commentary here in the U.S. might be.

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U.S. Stock Market: Should You Be Worried?

June 30, 2015

Yesterday wasn’t a good day for the stock market—anywhere. When I wrote yesterday’s post, the U.S. markets were only off by a bit. But the drop later in the day looked like it might be a bad sign; at a little over 2 percent, it was the largest one-day dip in some time.

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