May 16, 2016
Last week’s data was surprisingly positive, with both retail sales and consumer confidence beating expectations substantially, accompanied by upward revisions to past months. As consumers account for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this is extremely positive news.
After yesterday’s discussion of wage growth, today’s data on consumer spending and confidence makes for a good follow-up.
May 12, 2016
This will be a short post, as I’m at the Commonwealth Leaders Conference in Hawaii this week. (Tough job, I know, but someone has to do it.)
May 11, 2016
In a recent post, I wrote that oil prices are subject to much more risk on the upside than many people think. Sure enough, plenty of readers responded with reasons why I was wrong, insisting that prices couldn’t rise higher.
They might be right, of course, but recent events suggest the risk on oil prices remains much more to the upside than many believe.
May 10, 2016
Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. The news this month is good. Some potentially worrying downward trends have continued to reverse, suggesting that the weakness of the past couple of quarters is abating.
Last week’s news was mixed but more positive than we’ve seen recently, suggesting that the economy continues to stabilize and may be starting to improve.
May 6, 2016
After Wednesday’s post on why many investment portfolios are doing badly, the natural follow-up question is, how do we get them to do better? Everyone, me included, would like to be able to buy into asset classes that will do well and avoid those that won’t.
If only it were that simple.
The Indiana primaries giveth, and the Indiana primaries taketh away.
On the one hand, after Donald Trump’s victory there pushed both Ted Cruz and John Kasich out of the race, we now know who the Republican nominee will almost certainly be. On the other hand, Bernie Sanders’s victory extends the Democrats’ primary process further. Although Hillary Clinton remains the overwhelming favorite, that race isn’t over yet.
May 4, 2016
I’ve had a lot of conversations recently about investment performance. Many people are reviewing their results, comparing them with what they expected and have received in the past, and asking themselves, Why are my investments doing so badly?
May 3, 2016
It’s time for our monthly look at market risk factors. Just as with the economy, there are several key factors that matter for the market, in determining both the risk level and the immediacy of that risk. Although the recent pullback is largely in the rearview mirror, given valuations and recent market behavior, it's still useful to keep an eye on these factors.
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