The Independent Market Observer

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Economic News Holding Steady

August 25, 2015

Given everything that happened yesterday, I skipped my regular Monday Update to discuss the turmoil in the markets. Today, let’s return to the economic stats, as they shed more light on my theme from yesterday—that U.S. economic fundamentals remain solid.

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As Market Fears Grow, Stay Focused on the Long Term

August 24, 2015

One bad day doesn’t make a bear market. Two bad days, however, and the prospect of more to come, may well signal one.

Bear market is a scary term, and the past several days have certainly given investors cause for concern. Rather than spend time worrying, though, let’s try to understand what has happened and what it means for our long-term financial goals.

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Appearance on Mornings with Maria, August 20, 2015 [Video]

August 24, 2015

As the price of crude oil dropped precipitously last week, nearing another post-financial-crisis low, I joined Maria Bartiromo on the set of her Fox Business Network show, Mornings with Maria, to discuss whether now might be a good time to start investing in the energy sector and how to go about doing so. 

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The Fed: Much Ado About (Pretty Much) Nothing

August 20, 2015

Will the Fed start to raise rates in September?

Economists and market watchers have been debating that question for months, concluding that September was a pretty safe bet. That got boring, though, so we took a couple of opportunities—the weak inflation report this week, the Chinese yuan devaluation, yesterday’s release of the July Fed minutes—to reopen the debate.

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China's Bubble Trouble

August 18, 2015

The news today is that the Shanghai Stock Exchange closed down another 6.5 percent, despite substantial support from the Chinese government. Given the market’s earlier declines and China’s surprise currency devaluation, the latest plunge suggests more trouble ahead.

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Monday Update: Steady as She Goes

August 17, 2015

Building on the previous week’s good news, the economic statistics released last week showed continued improvement.

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China’s Currency Devaluation: Possible Consequences

August 12, 2015

The shocks from the Chinese yuan devaluation continue to echo around the world.

Today, the currency had its second-worst day (after yesterday) since the modern Chinese foreign exchange system launched in 1994, falling a further 1.6 percent against the dollar. Markets were down around the world, and U.S. interest rates dropped substantially.

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China’s Yuan Devaluation: What You Need to Know

August 11, 2015

Some mornings I wake up and wonder what I should blog about. Not today. Looking at my phone in bed to scan the headlines, I couldn’t believe the news—China had devalued its currency! This is a big deal in the financial world.

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Monday Update: Slowdown Starts to Speed Up

August 10, 2015

Last week was a good one for the economy. The data released met expectations and, in many cases, substantially exceeded them. Overall, accelerating growth seems likely in the second half of the year, and first-half growth may turn out better than the initial reports suggested. 

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A Good-News Week for the Economy

August 7, 2015

Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve written about various headwinds the economy faces—among them, slow wage growth, a decline in consumer confidence, slow consumer spending growth, and declining business investment. All of these are real issues, and ones that have held the economy back over the past quarter.

At the same time, there’s been encouraging news this past week that suggests the slowdown, as last year, was temporary, and that faster growth is ahead.

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