The Independent Market Observer

Some Thoughts on Paris

November 18, 2015

As you might imagine, I’ve been thinking about Paris a lot the past couple of days: the usual rage and horror, the usual thoughts about what can be done. But the saddest part about it for me? It's just two words—“the usual.”

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Monday Update: Happy Consumers, Still Not Shopping

November 16, 2015

Last week was a slow one for major economic news, with mixed results. There were two reports of significance, so let’s take a closer look.

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Monday Update: Green Shoots in November

November 9, 2015

Last week’s economic data was very much in line with the weather—much better than expected. As I will outline in this Monday update, it wasn’t the full “shirtsleeves in November” that we had in Boston, but it was nonetheless much sunnier than the prior weeks may have suggested.

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Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, November 3, 2015 [Video]

November 5, 2015

When markets rose after the Fed hinted at a potential rate hike in December, it made me rethink my expectations for the remainder of 2015. Will it be a double-digit year for stocks after all? I shared my views during an appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch program on Tuesday.

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Monday Update: The Slowdown Continues

November 2, 2015

Last week was a busy one for economic data. And the numbers, which I’ll cover in this Monday update, along with expectations for this upcoming period, continued to show the effects of a slowdown in the third quarter.

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Slow GDP Growth: A Trick of the Numbers?

October 30, 2015

Yesterday, the quarterly growth figure for the economy as a whole, known as gross domestic product (GDP), came out at 1.5 percent. This figure was in line with expectations but was nevertheless disappointing since it declined from 3.9 percent in the second quarter. This gives rise to certain questions: Why did the GDP decline, and is this is a harbinger of future trouble?

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The Fed Surprises Again—But with a Treat, Not a Trick

October 29, 2015

As I wrote on Monday, no one expected anything of substance from the Federal Reserve. But, once again, the Fed surprised us. The September meeting was a trick, when it chose not to raise rates. But the October meeting looks like it may end up being a treat. I don’t mean in a policy way (rates remained unchanged, as expected). Instead, the Fed has very explicitly ruled out economic risks to the extent that a rate increase for December—which most had written off—is back on the table.

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Is China Selling U.S. Treasuries, and Do We Care?

October 27, 2015

It’s surprising how worries come and go. Not that long ago, there was a real fear that China could—by dumping its vast store of U.S. Treasury bonds on the market—drive rates up and cripple the U.S. economy. As China’s economy has weakened, however, we haven’t heard so much of that, and worries have shifted to other ways that China could tank the world economy. But, in fact, could this be a more serious issue now than it was then?

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Monday Update: Housing Surprises, But Still Signs of Recent Weakness

October 26, 2015

As I wrote in a previous post, housing is a key reflector of consumer expectations. And even with recent signs of slowing in the economy, last week the housing market had some results that were much better than expected, pointing to continued growth. In today's Monday Update, I'll take a deeper look at the numbers.

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Monday Update: The Good and Bad—But No Ugly

October 19, 2015

Overall, the economic news last week was balanced. In this Monday Update, I’ll review the good and the bad, as well as what to watch for in the week ahead.

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