The Independent Market Observer

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, October 14, 2015 [Video]

October 16, 2015

Walmart's expected earnings decline is bad news for the company, but could it actually be good news for consumers? Learn what I think about Walmart's decision to raise wages, which I discussed in an appearance Wednesday on CNBC's Power Lunch program.

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Wall Street Vs. Main Street: Is Walmart Caught in the Middle?

October 15, 2015

One of yesterday’s big news stories was the surprise announcement by Walmart that, instead of growing by 4 percent (as expected), earnings per share were expected to decline by between 6 percent and 12 percent in fiscal year 2017. Shares, of course, dropped substantially, and the market as a whole took note. Lower earnings are bad, right? For the company, and quite possibly for the market, this is certainly true. But is it bad for the economy and the country? I don’t think so.

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Monday Update: Generally Positive, But Concerns Ahead?

October 12, 2015

Overall, last week’s data came in generally positive, but in this Monday update, I highlight some economic news in the week ahead that may be cause for concern.

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Appearance on Risk & Reward, October 5, 2015 [Video]

October 7, 2015

Is Wall Street bracing for the worst year since 2008? Watch my interview on Fox Business Network’s Risk & Reward to hear my thoughts on the state of the markets and hedge fund performance. 

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Monday Update: Disappointing News on Employment

October 5, 2015

Although last week started reasonably strong, it ended with a severe disappointment. This Monday update takes a closer look at the economic data.

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Another Day, Another Stock Market Drop. So What?

September 29, 2015

Yesterday was another rocky day for U.S. markets, with substantial declines across all major indices. It brought us close to the lows of late August, and the question now is, will we go lower this time?

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Monday Update: More Slow and Steady Economic News

September 28, 2015

Last week’s data was mixed, but on the whole it wasn’t too bad. Let’s take a closer look at the economic news.

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Yellen’s Speech: Much Ado About . . . What?

September 25, 2015

The Fed seems to realize that the message markets took from last week’s decision not to raise rates was not, in fact, the one it wanted to send. Since that decision was announced, we have seen statements from several committee members making the case that it was a “close call” and that a rate increase is still in the cards this year—probably in an attempt to mitigate the markets’ worries. What has been missing, though, is some indication of what the most important member, the chair, thinks about the whole thing. Now we know.

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From Gilded Age to Progressive Era: Are We Near the End of a Social Cycle?

September 23, 2015

One of the ideas I play with occasionally is that of long-term social cycles. Strauss and Howe’s book The Fourth Turning is a good example of how demographic cycles can alter society; it’s also a recommended read.

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Monday Update: Better Than It Looks

September 21, 2015

Last week was a busy one, with the release of important data for business and consumers, two macro reports, and the Fed’s decision on raising interest rates. Generally, the economic news in this Monday update is reasonably good and nothing to indicate worry.

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