I am traveling today and away from my usual data sources. The market seems to be bouncing back, though, so I thought I’d take a break from addressing immediate investment worries in favor of some quick thoughts on a few disparate topics that, believe it or not, are connected by a common denominator.  

U.S. markets have bounced back a bit after yesterday’s decline, but I think investors are still rattled by recent developments. I said yesterday that I don’t think this is the onset of the big one, and we shouldn’t worry. At the same time, it is certainly possible that we’ll see markets fall even further. If it’s not time to worry yet, when will it be?

I am in California, which means that I woke up this morning to a market that was already open—and dropping. Washington, DC is the cause once again. Growing turmoil in the nation’s capital has called into question the ability of the Trump Administration and Congress to enact their policy goals.

Looking back over the past couple of weeks, my overall approach has been one of looking at the big picture rather than the details. And when you do that, the big picture is actually quite good. In many ways, we are in a boom time like we haven’t seen since the 1990s. I know that goes substantially against the narrative out there, and there are important differences. But there are also more similarities than you might expect given the news coverage.

After writing yesterday’s post, it occurred to me that it would make sense to apply the measures I use for the U.S. to other economies where problems could affect us. Interestingly enough, just as I thought that, articles pointed out that one of my key metrics—the yield curve, which represents how much central banks are stimulating an economy—had just flashed a trouble signal in China.

I have written about this concept before, but given some conversations I’ve had recently, I think it’s a great time to revisit it. When trying to understand both what is happening and (ideally) what is going to happen, we need to be able to identify what is important—and what is not. In other words, what signals should we pay attention to—and what noise should we ignore?

Warren Buffett has said that he finds living in Omaha to be an advantage, as it distances him from much of the daily noise of the financial markets. Since I’ve been in Hungary at a conference this week, I’m starting to understand what he means.

I’m in Budapest, Hungary, this week at the Commonwealth Leaders Conference. As always, it's great to spend time with such a fantastic group of financial advisors. It is an enormous privilege to be here.

As April draws to a close, the old adage “Sell in May and go away” may be on some investors’ minds. The saying refers to the tendency of markets to underperform during the period from May to October (as compared with better performance from November through April), advising us to sell and wait for brighter days ahead.

Yesterday, readers wrote in with a couple of very good questions about risk.