---
title: "Political Risk Update: Responding to Reader Comments"
description: Commonwealth CIO Brad McMillan addresses reader questions about a recent post.
image: https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_2.jpg
---

[![The Independent Market Observer](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/IMO-Title-1.png "The Independent Market Observer")](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer)

[![Commonwealth Financial Network](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/lockup_citron-1.png "Commonwealth Financial Network")](https://www.commonwealth.com/)

- [Home](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer)
- [About](https://learn.commonwealth.com/about/)

### ![print this page](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/file-1376458285-gif/images/print.gif)Print

# [Political Risk Update: Responding to Reader Comments](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/political-risk-update-responding-to-reader-comments)

Posted by [Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/author/brad-mcmillan-cfa-caia-mai)

Find me on:

[LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/bradmcmillancfa) [Twitter](https://x.com/BradMcMillanCFA)

This entry was posted on  Apr 26, 2017, 3:17:40 PM

 and tagged [Commentary](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/topic/commentary) 

[Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/political-risk-update-responding-to-reader-comments#comments-listing)

![risk update](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Brad_Images_IMO_Blog/2017/VolatilityUncertainty_2.jpg?width=300&name=VolatilityUncertainty_2.jpg "risk update")Yesterday, readers wrote in with a couple of very good questions about [risk](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/political-risk-update-france-and-the-u.s.-budget).

##### **When does risk turn into reality?**

The first reader wrote:

*It seems the trend in your message is one of increasing "awareness" of risk. Is this a fair statement to make? And if so, at what point does awareness turn into reality? When is risk enough where economic facts can no longer refute the trending risk?*

The idea that I am writing about *awareness* of risk is spot-on, and the question of when risk turns into reality is really what we're all wrestling with. Most investors are confident when they should be worried, and vice versa, so a big part of what I do here is to keep that awareness high—and to raise it even as things look better. The writer goes on to say:

*I get the impression that the economy is strengthening, but that maybe the market and the economy are on different trajectories. My clients ask about debt levels, inflation, etc. I'm trying to distinguish between a hypersensitivity from the last crash, and not falling in love with a market that seems to overcome every obstacle lately.* 

Again, well stated and a fair representation of what I’m trying to convey. The economy is fairly strong, has been for some time, and is likely to keep improving for a while yet. As confidence rises, awareness of risk tends to fall, and that can be a problem.

Being aware of risk is not enough, of course. I try to tackle the second part—identifying when high risk is changing to immediate risk—by monitoring some key [economic](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/economic-risk-factor-update-april-2017) and [market](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/monthly-market-risk-update-april-2017) indicators on a monthly basis. I also highlight what I see as major event risks that aren’t getting enough mindshare—for example, the recent French election and the pending debt ceiling debate here in the U.S. We need to keep an eye on both the underlying trends and the events, and with a daily blog I can do just that.

Right now, though risks remain high (and we have to remain aware of that), immediate risks are still pretty low. The trends are favorable, so most risk at this point will come from events. When trends change, which will show up in my monthly updates, I will spend much more time looking at what that means—and what we should be doing.

##### **The debt ceiling: what are the limits?**

The second comment on yesterday’s post offers a good example of what I mean by this:

*Appears to me that Congress is "kicking the can down the road" again. Debt limit, no debt limit, new debt limit, raise debt limit, and on and on. Seems to be working (at least for the "protected class"). Are there limits? My guess is that there are.* 

The observation is an excellent one. There are indeed limits, although no one knows exactly where they are. This is a great example of high risk that is likely not immediate, on a trending basis.

At the same time, there is immediate event risk, posed by both the budget talks and the pending debt ceiling debate. Here, again, there is little systemic risk—we will not hit the fundamental limit on debt anytime soon, based on Japan’s experience—but the probability of event risk is actually quite high. We have to cover both the immediate risk and the trending risk, but they are not the same at all.

##### **Your thoughts?**

Finally, another reader asked how I normally respond to questions. Typically, I answer directly in the comments (for short answers) or by doing a separate post (for longer answers). Is the existing process working well? I welcome your feedback. 

I get my best ideas from suggestions and questions, from readers of this blog and from Commonwealth’s advisors and clients. I appreciate your help, and I look forward to more of it in the future. Thanks for reading!

  [![Subscribe to the Independent Market Observer](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/ed61d174-5ba6-4ca8-ae2c-671a2d34293c.png)](http://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/ed61d174-5ba6-4ca8-ae2c-671a2d34293c)

- [Tweet](https://twitter.com/share)

### Subscribe via Email

![TMO\_IMO\_615x408\_sidebar](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs-fs/hubfs/TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png?width=1033&height=686&name=TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar.png "TMO_IMO_615x408_sidebar")

[Episode 20](https://vimeo.com/1201911815/0f4f028be9?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
June 17, 2026

[Episode 19](https://vimeo.com/1191658257/1b43ce84dd?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
May 13, 2026

[Episode 18](https://vimeo.com/1183174918/e227cf7d80?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
April 15, 2026

[Episode 17](https://vimeo.com/1174554734/636f0f7aba?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
March 18, 2026

[Episode 16](https://vimeo.com/1163757312/bc2f802d74?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci)  
February 11, 2026

<https://news.yahoo.com/stocks-halt-rout-dollar-down-200241022.html>[More](https://learn.commonwealth.com/monthly-media-placements)

[![Insights\_CTA\_IMO\_233x400-1](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/interactive-187935228457.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hs/cta/wi/redirect?encryptedPayload=AVxigLJI25sqMlyrsWV49C2S%2BKvOl5kexDTRDbQHeNU9ofJvZQEfUvdUb08W0nI0XZHUdViQqc59HbjrWfJzPgg4qAPvr9RiC%2Bcz3mEkYOZGwPng5ol2ql%2BnplV01hLaWJKE2LdBkAbUOP%2BOHPH3NF3OKn2qrhANTardPbpFphF2WjU6BkyDZ6i3ctzu19xx2x%2BOiPyWNKo5yPTkpDg%3D&webInteractiveContentId=187935228457&portalId=295024)

### Hot Topics

Select Category Ask Brad Commentary Economic Risk Factor Updates Economics Lessons Market Thoughts Videos In the News Investing Market Updates On My Bookshelf Politics and the Economy

[![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/295024/5f46d9ce-4d40-495c-a126-d4502b647bbf)

### Archives

- [September 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/09)
- [August 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/08)
- [July 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/07)
- [June 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/06)
- [May 2026 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/05)
- [April 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/04)
- [March 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/03)
- [February 2026 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/02)
- [January 2026 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2026/01)
- [December 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/12)
- [November 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/11)
- [October 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/10)
- [September 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/09)
- [August 2025 (3)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/08)
- [July 2025 (4)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/07)
- [June 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/06)
- [May 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/05)
- [April 2025 (7)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/04)
- [March 2025 (5)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/03)
- [February 2025 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/02)
- [January 2025 (1)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2025/01)
- [December 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/12)
- [November 2024 (2)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/11)
- [October 2024 (9)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/10)
- [September 2024 (12)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/09)
- [August 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/08)
- [July 2024 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/07)
- [June 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/06)
- [May 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/05)
- [April 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/04)
- [March 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/03)
- [February 2024 (11)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/02)
- [January 2024 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2024/01)
- [December 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/12)
- [November 2023 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/11)
- [October 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/10)
- [September 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/09)
- [August 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/08)
- [July 2023 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/07)
- [June 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/06)
- [May 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/05)
- [April 2023 (13)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/04)
- [March 2023 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/03)
- [February 2023 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/02)
- [January 2023 (16)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2023/01)
- [December 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/12)
- [November 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/11)
- [October 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/10)
- [September 2022 (14)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/09)
- [August 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/08)
- [July 2022 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/07)
- [June 2022 (15)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/06)
- [May 2022 (17)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/05)
- [April 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/04)
- [March 2022 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/03)
- [February 2022 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/02)
- [January 2022 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2022/01)
- [December 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/12)
- [November 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/11)
- [October 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/10)
- [September 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/09)
- [August 2021 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/08)
- [July 2021 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/07)
- [June 2021 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/06)
- [May 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/05)
- [April 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/04)
- [March 2021 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/03)
- [February 2021 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/02)
- [January 2021 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2021/01)
- [December 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/12)
- [November 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/11)
- [October 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/10)
- [September 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/09)
- [August 2020 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/08)
- [July 2020 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/07)
- [June 2020 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/06)
- [May 2020 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/05)
- [April 2020 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/04)
- [March 2020 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/03)
- [February 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/02)
- [January 2020 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2020/01)
- [December 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/12)
- [November 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/11)
- [October 2019 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/10)
- [September 2019 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/09)
- [August 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/08)
- [July 2019 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/07)
- [June 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/06)
- [May 2019 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/05)
- [April 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/04)
- [March 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/03)
- [February 2019 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/02)
- [January 2019 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2019/01)
- [December 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/12)
- [November 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/11)
- [October 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/10)
- [September 2018 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/09)
- [August 2018 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/08)
- [July 2018 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/07)
- [June 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/06)
- [May 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/05)
- [April 2018 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/04)
- [March 2018 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/03)
- [February 2018 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/02)
- [January 2018 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2018/01)
- [December 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/12)
- [November 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/11)
- [October 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/10)
- [September 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/09)
- [August 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/08)
- [July 2017 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/07)
- [June 2017 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/06)
- [May 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/05)
- [April 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/04)
- [March 2017 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/03)
- [February 2017 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/02)
- [January 2017 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2017/01)
- [December 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/12)
- [November 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/11)
- [October 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/10)
- [September 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/09)
- [August 2016 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/08)
- [July 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/07)
- [June 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/06)
- [May 2016 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/05)
- [April 2016 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/04)
- [March 2016 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/03)
- [February 2016 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/02)
- [January 2016 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2016/01)
- [December 2015 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/12)
- [November 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/11)
- [October 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/10)
- [September 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/09)
- [August 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/08)
- [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07)
- [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06)
- [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05)
- [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04)
- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

see all

### Subscribe

- [RSS](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/rss.xml)

### Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member [FINRA](http://www.FINRA.org), [SIPC](http://www.SIPC.org)

Please review our [Terms of Use](https://www.commonwealth.com/terms-of-use).  <http://www.commonwealth.com/termsofuse.html>

Commonwealth Financial Network®

<http://wordpress.com/?ref=footer>