The Independent Market Observer

Three Steps and a Stumble

Posted by Brad McMillan, CFA®, CFP®

Find me on:

This entry was posted on Mar 17, 2017 1:07:46 PM

and tagged Commentary

Leave a comment

three steps and a stumbleSt. Patrick’s Day, at least here in the U.S., is all about the wearing of the green. Everyone is Irish today, the green beer flows, and we have a great time—until waking up the next day with a hangover. Living in Boston, with the surname McMillan, I certainly get it.

On St. Paddy’s Day, market not feeling as festive

The stock market has been decked out in green (of the cash variety) for a while now, but could it be heading for a hangover as well? The Federal Reserve’s rate hike decision and less-hawkish-than-expected commentary didn’t seem to faze it. But over the past couple of weeks, equity markets have drifted somewhat lower, and that trend seems to be continuing. Will it get worse?

One reason for thinking so is the Wall Street saying “three steps and a stumble,” which refers to the market’s tendency to pull back after three Fed rate hikes. We just had the third, so the current drift downward seems consistent with the saying, as would a further decline.

As far as market pullbacks go, we will almost certainly see one this year, and maybe in a big way. But I’m not at all certain it will be now, or because of the Fed. Historically, the three steps have come in fairly rapid succession. Given that the first hike was more than a year ago, followed by two in recent months, we may be on the second step here, not the third. It’s possible the pullback will happen on the next raise instead of this one.

Could this be the stumble?

Or perhaps we’re seeing the three-step stumble now, and it’s just quite small. Given that the latest rate increase was well telegraphed by the Fed and fully priced in by the markets, any reaction should have been priced in as well. In fact, this could explain the drift downward over the past couple of weeks. 

It also makes sense based on the market’s recent behavior. Shocks that would have rocked it in previous years have only generated yawns. A small stumble rather than a large one is very much in keeping with the general trend. Since the election, the market has been trading primarily on sentiment and confidence, rather than fundamentals, with sharp increases in confidence and expectations driving substantial gains. In such an environment, we can expect fundamental changes, like interest rate increases, to have less of an effect.

Market likely to be up and running again soon

All of these factors suggest that any stumble may not get much worse than what we’ve already seen, mild as it is. And once that “stumble” has run its course, market appreciation could well resume.

After all, the real message of the Fed’s rate increases is that the economy is growing solidly and sustainably. The Fed judges the risks to be lower on the downside than the upside, and it is moving to contain those upside risks. When the economy is growing, people are confident, and even the Fed is on board, that has historically been good for markets.

I’d call this more of a stubbed toe than a stumble, but it may be as bad as it gets, at least for a while. A number of potential problems could pull the market back, but this doesn’t appear to be one of them. I'll be keeping an eye out for the next rate increase, but at the moment, markets seem to be in the clear.


Subscribe via Email

Crash-Test Investing

Hot Topics



New Call-to-action

Conversations

Archives

see all

Subscribe


Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

Member FINRASIPC

Please review our Terms of Use

Commonwealth Financial Network®