---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (6)
description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (6)
---

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## [Policy Uncertainty Begins to Weigh on Investors](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/policy-uncertainty-begins-to-weigh-on-investors)

February 4, 2025

*Brad here. As many of you know, I have been working on a much wider range of things here at Commonwealth, and as such, I have stepped back from a lot of the public-facing work I was doing. And that was fine as long as everything was going well. But when things become uncertain, we need someone to be able to explain what is happening—and why.*

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/policy-uncertainty-begins-to-weigh-on-investors) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/policy-uncertainty-begins-to-weigh-on-investors#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Stock-Markets/StockMarket-g.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q3-2024-earnings-santa-delivered-but-markets-expect-more-in-2025)

## [Q3 2024 Earnings: Santa Delivered, but Markets Expect More in 2025](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q3-2024-earnings-santa-delivered-but-markets-expect-more-in-2025)

December 12, 2024

When kids are young, they don’t ask for much—maybe a toy car or a new puzzle will keep them happy. But as they get older, the requests always seem to get bigger. Those toys and puzzles become more complicated video games, LEGO, or designer clothes and are invariably something we, the adults, never had as kids.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q3-2024-earnings-santa-delivered-but-markets-expect-more-in-2025) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q3-2024-earnings-santa-delivered-but-markets-expect-more-in-2025#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Election/Election-f.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/early-election-thoughts)

## [Early Election Thoughts](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/early-election-thoughts)

November 6, 2024

From beginning to end, the 2024 election cycle will be looked back on as historic. It was hard fought and contentious on both sides. But at the end of the day, polls and political pundits don’t decide elections—voters do.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/early-election-thoughts) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/early-election-thoughts#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Intl-Markets/Intl-Markets-g.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/geopolitical-risks-tricks-or-treats)

## [Geopolitical Risks: Tricks or Treats?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/geopolitical-risks-tricks-or-treats)

October 31, 2024

In the most recent *Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey* (October 2024)*,* managers were asked what they considered the biggest “tail risk.” Their answer: geopolitical conflict. So, if you’ve been thinking about geopolitical risks and their potential effect on portfolios, you are certainly not alone.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/geopolitical-risks-tricks-or-treats) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/geopolitical-risks-tricks-or-treats#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Politics/elephant%20donkey.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-will-the-election-mean-for-markets)

## [What Will the Election Mean for Markets?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-will-the-election-mean-for-markets)

October 24, 2024

*“The wind is rising, and the air is wild with leaves. We have had our summer evenings; now for October eves!”*  
— Humbert Wolfe

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-will-the-election-mean-for-markets) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/what-will-the-election-mean-for-markets#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Stock-Markets/StockMarket-j.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q3-2024-earnings-season-preview-magnificent-7-feeling-the-pressure)

## [Q3 2024 Earnings Season Preview: Magnificent 7 Feeling the Pressure?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q3-2024-earnings-season-preview-magnificent-7-feeling-the-pressure)

October 10, 2024

Anyone past a certain age knows how much easier it was to do things when they were younger. You could stay up all night to finish a project, play a pickup basketball game without stretching, and eat or drink whatever you wanted without many consequences. As we get older, though, we start to see the effects of our poor decisions but also gain the experience that can help guide us.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q3-2024-earnings-season-preview-magnificent-7-feeling-the-pressure) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q3-2024-earnings-season-preview-magnificent-7-feeling-the-pressure#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-september-and-ahead-to-october-2024)

## [Looking Back at the Markets in September and Ahead to October 2024](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-september-and-ahead-to-october-2024)

October 3, 2024

September was a solid month for investors, capping off a strong quarter for markets. Falling interest rates helped support stock returns, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average setting new record highs during the month. Even bonds were up, marking five straight months with positive fixed income performance.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-september-and-ahead-to-october-2024) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-september-and-ahead-to-october-2024#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/The-Fed/TheFed-j.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-fed-goes-big-whats-next-for-asset-allocation)

## [The Fed Goes Big: What’s Next for Asset Allocation?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-fed-goes-big-whats-next-for-asset-allocation)

September 25, 2024

*“Sometimes the questions are complicated, and the answers are simple.”*  
— Dr. Seuss

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-fed-goes-big-whats-next-for-asset-allocation) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-fed-goes-big-whats-next-for-asset-allocation#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/The-Fed/TheFed-g.png)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/digesting-the-fed-rates-start-to-fall-before-the-leaves)

## [Digesting the Fed: Rates Start to Fall Before the Leaves](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/digesting-the-fed-rates-start-to-fall-before-the-leaves)

September 19, 2024

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week and voted to cut rates by a half-percent, bringing its policy range to 4.75 percent to 5 percent. This decision comes after committee members had elected to hold rates steady at the preceding eight meetings after their hiking cycle concluded in July 2023. This vote also marks the first time in recent periods that a voting committee member dissented from the popular vote. We saw 11 committee members vote in favor of the action, with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman as the sole dissenter, preferring a quarter-percent cut.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/digesting-the-fed-rates-start-to-fall-before-the-leaves) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/digesting-the-fed-rates-start-to-fall-before-the-leaves#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Inflation/Inflation-d.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q2-2024-earnings-season-review-beating-expectations-isnt-enough)

## [Q2 2024 Earnings Season Review: Beating Expectations Isn’t Enough](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q2-2024-earnings-season-review-beating-expectations-isnt-enough)

September 10, 2024

If you entered this NFL season as a Kansas City Chiefs fan, you’re probably hoping for a Super Bowl win after clinching three of the past five Super Bowls and having Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback and Taylor Swift backing the team. (As a Patriots fan, I remember that feeling.) Similarly, after the S&P 500 beat earnings estimates for several quarters, investors aren’t just hoping to beat earnings. They are looking for both a beat and better guidance going forward. Investors had to settle for just one of those in the second quarter.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q2-2024-earnings-season-review-beating-expectations-isnt-enough) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/q2-2024-earnings-season-review-beating-expectations-isnt-enough#comments-listing)

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- [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05)
- [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04)
- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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