---
title: The Independent Market Observer | Outlook. Opinion. Insight. | Commentary (33)
description: Commentary | Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, Brad McMillan, provides insight on the economic, market, and political events of the day—both domestically and on a global scale. (33)
---

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[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Look-Back-Ahead/look-back-ahead-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-december-and-ahead-to-january-2022)

## [Looking Back at the Markets in December and Ahead to January 2022](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-december-and-ahead-to-january-2022)

January 5, 2022

December was a solid month for both the economy and the markets but a difficult month for medical news. The Omicron wave of the COVID-19 virus drove new case counts to all-time highs at year-end. Job growth kept improving, however, and consumer confidence and spending also continued to grow. Business confidence and investment remained strong, and the markets reacted to the positive news. The economic news continued to be strong through year-end, although we should note it was based on backward-looking data. The outlook for January is more mixed. The Omicron wave is likely to start showing up in the economic data. It’s quite possible it will also influence the markets.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-december-and-ahead-to-january-2022) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/looking-back-at-the-markets-in-december-and-ahead-to-january-2022#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Gratitude/gratitude-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/best-wishes-for-the-new-year)

## [Best Wishes for the New Year](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/best-wishes-for-the-new-year)

December 31, 2021

As we close out the new year, it has been one to remember. Or, possibly, better to forget. In my own case, we had planned on having friends over for the evening. But, unfortunately, one was exposed to COVID, and then we found out late this morning that we had been exposed to COVID as well. This far, all the tests are negative—so wish us luck. But the risks are definitely on my mind at the moment.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/best-wishes-for-the-new-year) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/best-wishes-for-the-new-year#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Gratitude/gratitude-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/reflections-from-the-massachusetts-conference-for-women-1)

## [Reflections from the Massachusetts Conference for Women](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/reflections-from-the-massachusetts-conference-for-women-1)

December 30, 2021

For the third year in a row, Commonwealth sponsored the [Massachusetts Conference for Women](https://www.maconferenceforwomen.org/). Since 2005, this annual conference has been providing connection, motivation, inspiration, networking opportunities, and skills-building workshops for thousands of women. As we did in [2020](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/reflections-from-the-massachusetts-conference-for-women) and [2019](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-view-from-the-aisle-reflections-from-the-massachusetts-conference-for-women), my colleague [Giovanna Zaffina](https://blog.commonwealth.com/author/giovanna-zaffina) and I are sharing our experiences and thoughts.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/reflections-from-the-massachusetts-conference-for-women-1) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/reflections-from-the-massachusetts-conference-for-women-1#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Economy/econ-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/recessions-a-capitalist-perspective)

## [Recessions: A Capitalist Perspective](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/recessions-a-capitalist-perspective)

December 29, 2021

Is it possible we can learn something about a healthy economy from the National Forest Service (NFS)? For decades, the forest service had a policy of extinguishing brush and wildfires at all costs. Its main goals were to prevent fires and to suppress them as quickly as possible if they started. Over time, however, the NFS came to realize that forest fires have a role in nature, one that is necessary for healthy ecosystems to take form. The same may be true for recessions and the long-term health of our economy.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/recessions-a-capitalist-perspective) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/recessions-a-capitalist-perspective#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Monthly-Risk/monthly-update-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/target-date-funds-whats-under-the-hood)

## [Target-Date Funds: What’s Under the Hood?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/target-date-funds-whats-under-the-hood)

December 28, 2021

Target-date funds are a class of mutual fund or exchange-traded fund designed to accumulate assets to meet an investor’s needs at a future date—the “target date.” Typically, a target-date fund holds a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds. As the fund approaches and passes the designated retirement date, it is periodically rebalanced to be less focused on accumulation and more focused on income preservation. 

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/target-date-funds-whats-under-the-hood) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/target-date-funds-whats-under-the-hood#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Housing/housing-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/record-breaking-home-prices-and-rent-growth)

## [Record-Breaking Home Prices and Rent Growth](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/record-breaking-home-prices-and-rent-growth)

December 23, 2021

Rising home prices have been the focus of countless headlines throughout the past year. Accelerated demand in a tight real estate market has produced some captivating statistics. Recently, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that the third-quarter median sale price for an existing single-family home was 16 percent higher year-over-year. That marks a record since the NAR began capturing the data in 1968. 

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/record-breaking-home-prices-and-rent-growth) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/record-breaking-home-prices-and-rent-growth#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Intl-Markets/intl-markets-b.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/chinese-tech-stocks-what-does-the-future-hold-for-u.s.-based-investors)

## [Chinese Tech Stocks: What Does the Future Hold for U.S.-Based Investors?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/chinese-tech-stocks-what-does-the-future-hold-for-u.s.-based-investors)

December 22, 2021

China’s push for what is known as “common prosperity” has led to more of a crackdown on companies that don’t fit in with its longer-term goals. Harsh Chinese regulatory oversight is not new, yet recent changes in the country’s philosophy have led to more concerns about the future ramifications for Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges. Below, I’ll dive into the regulatory concerns and how they might affect any U.S.-based holders of U.S.-listed Chinese securities.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/chinese-tech-stocks-what-does-the-future-hold-for-u.s.-based-investors) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/chinese-tech-stocks-what-does-the-future-hold-for-u.s.-based-investors#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Intl-Markets/intl-markets-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/so-you-want-to-remove-china-from-your-portfolio)

## [So, You Want to Remove China from Your Portfolio?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/so-you-want-to-remove-china-from-your-portfolio)

December 21, 2021

In 2021, we have seen our fair share of requests from advisors and their clients to remove or reduce the exposure to China in their portfolios. This has happened for several reasons. In a previous [post](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-regulatory-crackdown-in-china-continues), I discussed both the strong foreign direct investment into China in 2020 and the stark contrast between the country and the rest of the world in 2020 nine months into the pandemic. Nearly a year later, we have seen the Chinese government take swift actions around foreign direct investment, including the planned delisting of Chinese ride-hailing company, Didi, from U.S. exchanges; fines on technology firms; and questions around the future of U.S. foreign direct investment.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/so-you-want-to-remove-china-from-your-portfolio) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/so-you-want-to-remove-china-from-your-portfolio#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Intl-Markets/intl-markets-a.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-omicron-a-risk-for-emerging-markets)

## [Is Omicron a Risk for Emerging Markets?](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-omicron-a-risk-for-emerging-markets)

December 17, 2021

The recent resurgence in COVID-19 cases and the emergence of the highly mutated Omicron variant are reminders that the pandemic is still very much a part of our lives. It is unclear how serious the health implications of the Omicron variant will be, let alone how governments, households, and firms will respond to it. While the financial markets have been through a range of emotions in the past few weeks, there is little evidence on how the underlying global economies will react.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-omicron-a-risk-for-emerging-markets) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/is-omicron-a-risk-for-emerging-markets#comments-listing)

[![](https://blog.commonwealth.com/hubfs/Rebrand-Blog-Images/IMO-images/Economic-Risk/econRisk-c.jpg)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/when-assessing-the-risk-of-your-portfolio-its-personal)

## [When Assessing the Risk of Your Portfolio, It’s Personal](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/when-assessing-the-risk-of-your-portfolio-its-personal)

December 16, 2021

Throughout the pandemic, we’ve seen a large-scale exercise in risk assessment. Both governments and individuals have had to make a number of risk assessments, weighing the cost and benefits of different actions without definitive information. Investors are making investment decisions based on risk as well, as no one can be a perfect forecaster. So, to the extent we can, we must not only be conscious of the uncertainty of our investment returns but also of the risk that we will make poor choices when faced with different results, both good and bad.

[Continue reading →](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/when-assessing-the-risk-of-your-portfolio-its-personal) [Leave a comment](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/when-assessing-the-risk-of-your-portfolio-its-personal#comments-listing)

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- [December 2015 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/12)
- [November 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/11)
- [October 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/10)
- [September 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/09)
- [August 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/08)
- [July 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/07)
- [June 2015 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/06)
- [May 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/05)
- [April 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/04)
- [March 2015 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/03)
- [February 2015 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/02)
- [January 2015 (21)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2015/01)
- [December 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/12)
- [November 2014 (19)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/11)
- [October 2014 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/10)
- [September 2014 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/09)
- [August 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/08)
- [July 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/07)
- [June 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/06)
- [May 2014 (25)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/05)
- [April 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/04)
- [March 2014 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/03)
- [February 2014 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/02)
- [January 2014 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2014/01)
- [December 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/12)
- [November 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/11)
- [October 2013 (27)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/10)
- [September 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/09)
- [August 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/08)
- [July 2013 (23)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/07)
- [June 2013 (22)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/06)
- [May 2013 (26)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/05)
- [April 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/04)
- [March 2013 (24)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/03)
- [February 2013 (20)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/02)
- [January 2013 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2013/01)
- [December 2012 (34)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/12)
- [November 2012 (39)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/11)
- [October 2012 (42)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/10)
- [September 2012 (36)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/09)
- [August 2012 (30)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/08)
- [July 2012 (31)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/07)
- [June 2012 (18)](https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/archive/2012/06)

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

The Russell 2000 is a market-capitalization weighted index, with dividends reinvested, that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies within the Russell 3000 Index. It is often used to track the performance of U.S. small market capitalization stocks.

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The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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