The Independent Market Observer

In the News: The Costs and Benefits of More Data

June 17, 2014

Is having more information always a good thing? It’s generally hailed as such, but, depending on your perspective, the reality may be more complicated.

In the news today, there are several examples of more data leading to changes that, while painful in the short run, should yield long-term positive results.

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Unexpected News: Iraq Conflict, Oil Prices, and a Political Upset

June 13, 2014

I’ll admit to being a bit out of touch with the markets for the past week, but I did note yesterday’s drop, which we can safely attribute to the increase in oil prices as conflict in Iraq escalates. Like many commentators, I’ve been focusing more on risk out of China and Europe, but the Middle East clearly remains a factor.

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What Housing Slowdown?

June 10, 2014

There’s been a fair bit of commentary lately about the apparent housing slowdown. Possible causes include an absence of buyers, the decline of the investor buyer, low credit scores, and declining affordability.

Do any of these anecdotal problems actually exist? And if so, what effect might they have on the housing market?

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In the News: Carbon, Bank Fines, Deflation, Financial Conflict

June 4, 2014

With no major stories breaking today, let’s discuss a few key themes in the news lately.

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What the Low VIX Means for the Stock Market

June 3, 2014

I’ve written before that there’s generally more downside risk in the stock market than investors expect. One way to account for that is to look at the VIX. 

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5/29/14 – GDP Report: The Last Blast of Winter

May 29, 2014

If you haven’t already seen the news online, you’ll no doubt see it on tomorrow’s front pages: first-quarter economic growth was revised down from an anemic 0.1-percent gain to a much worse 1-percent loss.

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5/29/14 – Interview on Bloomberg Radio’s The Hays Advantage

May 29, 2014

Check out Brad’s interview on Bloomberg Radio’s The Hays Advantage with Kathleen Hays and Vonnie Quinn, where he offers his general outlook on the markets.

 

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5/27/14 – Taxes Are Going Up, Inch by Inch

May 27, 2014

I ended last week on a note of shared sacrifice. This week, let’s talk about some of the forms that sacrifice will likely take.

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5/23/14 – Memorial Day Reflections

May 23, 2014

One of the joys of being a father is explaining to Jackson things that I, as an adult, take for granted. Today, we’ve been talking about Memorial Day—not as the start of summer but as a time to remember those who have died so we can live in freedom.

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5/20/14 – Interview on CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange

May 20, 2014

Check out Brad’s May 20 interview on CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange, where he offers his thoughts on recent U.S. equity market growth and Treasuries.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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