The Independent Market Observer

5/19/14 – How to Use Moving Averages to Avoid Stock Market Losses

May 19, 2014

One of the major causes of stock market losses is unforeseen declines that make people sell out—often at the worst time. This is one of the reasons I’ve focused much of my recent research on using drawdown (instead of return variance) as a measure of risk. In my opinion, it provides a better metric for real-world investment performance.

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5/9/14 – How to Turn P/E Data into P/E Information

May 19, 2014

The first question you might have, upon seeing that headline, is what’s the difference? Data is simply facts, without meaning or context. Information can be used as a basis to make decisions; it can be acted on.

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5/16/14 – What Can Cycles Tell Us About Investing?

May 16, 2014

If you ever want to be amused, get a cat to watch an ink-jet printer while it’s at work. I now have a laser printer at home, which still seems to fascinate the cat, but there’s no comparison to the ink-jet. Something about the print head scurrying back and forth under the cover must remind them of a mouse . . .

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5/14/14 – Back to the Old Normal

May 14, 2014

There are no blockbuster news stories today, but several items play into the theme of how “old normal” things have become.

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5/13/14 – The Federal Deficit Continues to Improve

May 13, 2014

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5/12/14 – Markets Probably Headed Even Higher

May 12, 2014

As I write this Monday morning, stocks are up quite a bit on the day, with the S&P 500 pushing even closer to a new all-time high. The headline on Google Finance reads “U.S. Stocks Advance Amid Deals on Optimism Over Economy,” and all seems right with the world.

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5/8/14 – Southeast Asia Heats Up as Ukraine Cools Down

May 8, 2014

The markets seem to be rallying as the Russians dial down the Ukraine confrontation. After a couple of dips, it looks like we’re edging back into a risk-on mode, with Putin apparently deciding that he has what he needs and it’s time to back off.

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5/5/14 – Uncertainty and Investing

May 5, 2014

This will be a short post, as I arrived home at 7:30 this morning after flying and laying over for the past 18 hours or so, so I am a little tired. That said, it was all worthwhile when Jackson came running out of the house to hug me as I pulled up in a cab, then tried to drag my bag—which weighed more than he does—into the house. We did it together—teamwork!

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5/2/14 – Employment Report Points to More Strength in the Economy

May 2, 2014

More evidence for the “snowdown” thesis is in. The unexpectedly strong April employment report, with a gain of 288,000 jobs, surprised pretty much everyone, and shows that hiring has come back in a big way after the weak first quarter. Even more encouraging are the upward revisions to first-quarter job growth, with 36,000 more jobs created than were initially reported.

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5/1/14 – Gratitudes for the Day

May 1, 2014

Thinking about my recent post on how normal everything has become, I realize that I should be more grateful for just that. Sitting here on my balcony in Kauai at the Commonwealth President’s Club conference, I certainly have other things to be grateful for as well.

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