The Independent Market Observer

Interview on Fox Business Network's Opening Bell

June 19, 2014

I joined Maria Bartiromo on the set of Fox Business Network’s Opening Bell today, June 19, to discuss the economic impact of the crisis in Iraq.

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Fed to Market: Full Speed Ahead

June 19, 2014

The Federal Reserve’s announcement yesterday that it would continue its current tapering schedule—but that a rise in rates still isn’t imminent—drove markets to the 20th new high of the year.

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Why the Middle East Matters: Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy

June 18, 2014

With rising turmoil in two major oil-producing states, Iraq and Iran, the world faces an increase in oil prices—and the consequent economic damage. Fortunately, the U.S. is much better positioned to ride out the storm than it has been in the past.

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In the News: The Costs and Benefits of More Data

June 17, 2014

Is having more information always a good thing? It’s generally hailed as such, but, depending on your perspective, the reality may be more complicated.

In the news today, there are several examples of more data leading to changes that, while painful in the short run, should yield long-term positive results.

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Unexpected News: Iraq Conflict, Oil Prices, and a Political Upset

June 13, 2014

I’ll admit to being a bit out of touch with the markets for the past week, but I did note yesterday’s drop, which we can safely attribute to the increase in oil prices as conflict in Iraq escalates. Like many commentators, I’ve been focusing more on risk out of China and Europe, but the Middle East clearly remains a factor.

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What Housing Slowdown?

June 10, 2014

There’s been a fair bit of commentary lately about the apparent housing slowdown. Possible causes include an absence of buyers, the decline of the investor buyer, low credit scores, and declining affordability.

Do any of these anecdotal problems actually exist? And if so, what effect might they have on the housing market?

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In the News: Carbon, Bank Fines, Deflation, Financial Conflict

June 4, 2014

With no major stories breaking today, let’s discuss a few key themes in the news lately.

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What the Low VIX Means for the Stock Market

June 3, 2014

I’ve written before that there’s generally more downside risk in the stock market than investors expect. One way to account for that is to look at the VIX. 

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5/29/14 – GDP Report: The Last Blast of Winter

May 29, 2014

If you haven’t already seen the news online, you’ll no doubt see it on tomorrow’s front pages: first-quarter economic growth was revised down from an anemic 0.1-percent gain to a much worse 1-percent loss.

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5/29/14 – Interview on Bloomberg Radio’s The Hays Advantage

May 29, 2014

Check out Brad’s interview on Bloomberg Radio’s The Hays Advantage with Kathleen Hays and Vonnie Quinn, where he offers his general outlook on the markets.

 

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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