The Independent Market Observer

The People Side of Investing

October 7, 2014

One of the joys of my job is that I’m constantly learning new things. A great way to do this is to go to a conference, listen to smart people speak, and then sit down and chat with them. That’s what I’m doing right now at Commonwealth’s National Conference.

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Everyone’s Worried About the Boomers, but Are the Kids Alright?

September 25, 2014

A major concern of the baby boomer-dominated media, as well as the economics profession and government agencies (also dominated by boomers), has been the fate of—you guessed it—older workers, mostly boomers. How many of them are out of work and disabled, or able and willing to return to the workforce? Good questions, but hardly the only issues out there.

While I’m certainly worried about the aging boomers, my own position—right in the middle, in Gen X—makes me more concerned about the job prospects of the younger generation, who will be paying for my retirement (hopefully).

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Why Is Consumer Spending Down?

September 22, 2014

One of the things holding back the economic recovery recently has been slower-than-expected consumer spending growth. Apparently, consumer spending has been constrained by Americans’ newfound unwillingness to borrow.

I suspect, however, that this is an illusion created by a deeper problem. Consumers have the money—in fact, net worth has recovered to an all-time high—they just aren’t borrowing and spending.

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Meet the New Fund, Same as the Old Fund? Thoughts on Alternative Investments

September 17, 2014

I am headed to New York today to speak at a conference on liquid alternatives. These types of alternative investments are often thought of as hedge funds for the masses; the idea is to take hedge fund-like strategies and wrap them in mutual funds. Ideally, this makes the expertise and money-making capabilities of all those hedge fund wizards available to mom and dad, so we can all get rich.

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Myth Busting: The Fed Isn’t Really Bankrupt

September 4, 2014

My dad is a pretty level-headed guy, not prone to panic or take things too seriously, so when he forwards me an article asking whether it’s plausible, I take a look.

As I mentioned yesterday, when we compare the actual data with what the doomsayers predicted several years ago, they were just plain wrong. Nonetheless, they continue to try to sell their products by scaring people.

The article my dad just passed along—which suggests that the Federal Reserve is actually bankrupt—is a good example of this type of scaremongering. Posted on a site called Money Morning, it takes some facts, adds some possibilities, mixes in a good dose of “coulds” and “maybes,” and comes up with a set of implications designed to frighten people into buying whatever the doomsayers are selling.

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End of the World Update: Housing, the Dollar, and More

September 3, 2014

Over the past couple of years, various predictions of doom have been making the rounds.

The dollar, if you remember, was going to collapse. Ditto the housing market. The U.S. economy was going to go into cardiac arrest as it overdosed on Fed stimulus. Employment was never going to come back. I could go on, but you get the idea.

So, how accurate have these scary predictions been? As it turns out, we didn’t have much to worry about.

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In Honor of Labor Day, Some Thoughts on the Labor Market

August 29, 2014

Like anyone who works with investments and Wall Street, I definitely have something of a pro-business perspective. One of the great things about Commonwealth, though, is that while we deal with Wall Street, we’re not a Wall Street firm. We’re a Main Street firm, working with independent advisors who have ordinary people as clients. 

This gives me a slightly different perspective on the world than many of my colleagues at other firms. I speak with our advisors almost every day, and directly to and with their clients on a regular basis. While Wall Street can be disconnected from reality, here at Commonwealth, we do our best to avoid that.

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With Employment Data, the Devil’s in the Details

August 20, 2014

When I speak to groups in various parts of the country, I often hear that things there don’t reflect the national employment averages and trends I talk about. This usually leads to some interesting discussions about why that might be the case.

The problem with looking at region-specific trends is the lack of research in that area. So I was glad to discover a recent report by Deloitte University Press that breaks out some numbers on a regional basis, with interesting results.

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Time for Another Look at the National Deficit and Debt

August 13, 2014

Part of the return to normal for the economy and the financial markets has been a decline in interest—or at least media coverage—of the national deficit and debt.

Though understandable, this is a mistake, as the deficit and debt remain a serious problem for the country in the medium to long term.

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Doing Well by Doing Good

August 11, 2014

One of the keys to business success is sustainable advantage, often referred to as a competitive “moat.” In short, if you have something your competitors can’t duplicate, you can charge for it and make money.

The idea typically centers on things that protect products. Think of patents, or the kind of ecosystem of software, hardware, and content that Apple, Amazon, and Google are building, at a cost of billions of dollars.

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