I’m currently reading Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman—a great book on how we make decisions, and how we can learn to make better ones. Its assertions are shocking, and even insulting, but they’re all the more useful for it. (Look for a full review here soon.)

One of Kahneman’s points is how bad we are at remembering what we thought at a given time—and how we tend, in retrospect, to think we were much more prescient than we actually were.

As we discussed yesterday, economic slowing in the rest of the world, while certainly a headwind for the U.S. economy, isn’t really something to worry about. U.S. economic data—3.5-percent growth last quarter, plus another month of more than 200,000 jobs created—seems to support that.

But unlike economics, where U.S. exposure is relatively small, our political and institutional exposure is intense. Here are some examples of problems abroad that should seriously worry us. 

I’m going to take a chance—probably only a small one—and predict that the Federal Reserve will announce the end of its bond-buying program today.

If I’m wrong, I won’t be the only one. Expectations for the Fed to step back are almost universal at this point.

Over the past couple of years, we’ve seen government spending drop considerably as a percentage of the economy as a whole. But is it set for a comeback?

One way to get ahead of trends, in my opinion, is to take basic assumptions that everyone just knows are true and think about what the world would be like if, in fact, those assumptions turned out to be wrong. 

Since returning from the Goldman Sachs conference yesterday, I’ve been thinking about what was said there—as well as what wasn't so much said as assumed.

Looking at the data over the past few days, it’s apparent that the economy continues to improve. Consumer comfort is rising, initial jobless claims are up a bit but remain at extremely low levels, job openings are at multiyear highs . . . the list goes on and on.

This week’s market melt-up has been widely attributed to the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. More or less, the Fed said it was worried about global growth and would probably be slower in raising rates than many had expected.

The effect on the market was substantial, which prompts a number of questions. But the one I want to talk about this morning is why the Fed is so worried.

One of the joys of my job is that I’m constantly learning new things. A great way to do this is to go to a conference, listen to smart people speak, and then sit down and chat with them. That’s what I’m doing right now at Commonwealth’s National Conference.

A major concern of the baby boomer-dominated media, as well as the economics profession and government agencies (also dominated by boomers), has been the fate of—you guessed it—older workers, mostly boomers. How many of them are out of work and disabled, or able and willing to return to the workforce? Good questions, but hardly the only issues out there.

While I’m certainly worried about the aging boomers, my own position—right in the middle, in Gen X—makes me more concerned about the job prospects of the younger generation, who will be paying for my retirement (hopefully).

One of the things holding back the economic recovery recently has been slower-than-expected consumer spending growth. Apparently, consumer spending has been constrained by Americans’ newfound unwillingness to borrow.

I suspect, however, that this is an illusion created by a deeper problem. Consumers have the money—in fact, net worth has recovered to an all-time high—they just aren’t borrowing and spending.