August was a very good month for the markets. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 reached new highs, and investors continued to move back into the markets. We also saw infection numbers decline, and the economic recovery started to regain strength. Consumer confidence looks to have bottomed, and wage growth has ticked up again, supporting spending growth.

Last week was jam-packed with economic news, with reports covering wide swaths of the economy released. Both major measures of consumer confidence for August revealed mixed results. This week will be busy once again, with updates focusing on business confidence and the August employment report.

There has been a great deal of commentary surrounding the change in how the Fed is going to manage inflation. As announced yesterday, the Fed will be using a “flexible form of average inflation targeting.” This means that rather than the prior objective—to keep inflation below 2 percent at all times—the Fed will now aim for an average inflation level of around 2 percent. Since inflation is well below 2 percent and has been for some time, markets are interpreting this announcement as the Fed will be willing to let inflation run hot (i.e., above 2 percent) for some time to restore the average. Cue the worries about hyperinflation.

Today, I'd like to give an update on the coronavirus, including the effects on the economy and markets. On the pandemic front, we’ve had some good news. Case growth is down significantly, and the case growth rate is below the lows seen in mid-June. Further, outbreaks in most states have been contained, although there are emerging worries in the Midwest. Testing does remain a weak spot, as the number of tests has trended down and the positive rate remains well above what it should be. Nonetheless, the big picture is that, for the moment, the pandemic is under control.

The good news is that the second wave of infections has continued to come under control in the past two weeks. Case growth is down significantly from the peak, and the case growth rate has ticked back down below the lows seen in mid-June. Despite the higher case counts, the pandemic is once more under control. The control measures are working.

Tomorrow, I will give my usual pandemic update (spoiler alert: improvement continues). But today I’d like to focus on what is becoming increasingly clear: the stock market and, to a lesser extent, the economy have started to move past the pandemic. While it clearly isn’t over and will continue to have an effect on both, the headlines and market reactions have moved on.

It’s my first day back from vacation, and I’m thinking I should take time off more often. Not only did we get some great posts here from my colleagues (thank you, all!), but my absence apparently allowed markets to hit new all-time highs. With investors getting excited, many expect the run-up to continue, despite the fact that I am now, metaphorically, back in the office. Sentiment is increasingly positive, and the fear of missing out is becoming a powerful driver for nervous investors to get back in the market. But should they?

Last week, the economic highlight was the housing sector, which has continued to impress since reopening efforts took hold, driven by record low mortgage rates. This will be a busy week for updates, with reports scheduled to cover wide swaths of the economy.

Brad here. Today we’ll get an update on the municipal bond market from Nick Follett, manager of fixed income on our Investment Management and Research team. Over to you, Nick.

Brad here. With so much unknown in our world, it seemed the perfect time to discuss how to position a portfolio for uncertainty. Today, Christ Stuart, a senior investment research analyst on our Investment Management and Research team, will do just that. Take it away, Chris.