This weekly update is appearing a couple of days early, due to Thanksgiving. We will go back to the regular Thursday schedule next week. I hope everyone has a terrific holiday. As always, I am grateful for all of you my friends and readers.

Last week saw a number of important economic data releases, with a disappointing October retail sales report and strong housing market updates serving as highlights. This week will be busy, as well as holiday-shortened, with a focus on November’s consumer confidence reports, the first look at durable goods orders in October, and the monthly personal income and spending reports.

Right now, the headlines are dominated by pandemic news, with the number of new cases continuing to hit all-time highs. But there is also growing worry that in addition to the tragic medical damage, we might see the economic recovery roll over as well. While this is a legitimate fear, the data is showing something different—that we may well be close to the end of the recession and back into a sustainable expansion.

As expected, the medical news continues to get worse. New infections hit all-time highs last week as the third wave of the pandemic has accelerated around the country. Case growth in many states remains at levels that threaten health care systems.

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, plays a key role in putting together the Economic and Market Risk Factor Updates. We are now working on updating the format, and you will see some changes this month and in coming months. Thanks for the great work, Sam!

The economy showed continued growth in October; however, the indicators we track in this piece showed varied results. Despite the mixed nature of the reports, the continued signs of economic growth during the month were encouraging, given the uncertainty created by rising coronavirus case counts and the election. The October jobs report was a highlight, as both the number of new jobs added and the unemployment rate came in better than expected. Business and consumer confidence, however, declined slightly during the month, though they still remain well off the lows. Overall, this was a month that showed continued improvement, as well as the ongoing risk the pandemic represents to the recovery as we head into the end of the year.

Last week was relatively quiet on the economic update front, with a focus on October’s inflation reports, the weekly initial claims report, and the first look at consumer confidence in November. This week will be busier, with releases on retail sales, industrial production, and housing.

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. On the medical front, case growth continues to accelerate, and new cases have reached all-time highs. This is something we need to watch, as the third wave is at a level where the national risks are material.

Yesterday I appeared on Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round to discuss the impact of the coronavirus vaccine news on the market. Listen in to hear more.

As expected, the medical news continues to get worse. The third wave of infections has accelerated around the country. Case growth has again moved to new highs, and the geographic spread of this wave of outbreaks continues to deepen. Case growth in many states remains at levels that threaten health care systems, and several states are moving back to lockdown mode.