As expected, the medical news continues to get worse. New infections hit all-time highs last week as the third wave of the pandemic has accelerated around the country. Case growth in many states remains at levels that threaten health care systems.

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, plays a key role in putting together the Economic and Market Risk Factor Updates. We are now working on updating the format, and you will see some changes this month and in coming months. Thanks for the great work, Sam!

The economy showed continued growth in October; however, the indicators we track in this piece showed varied results. Despite the mixed nature of the reports, the continued signs of economic growth during the month were encouraging, given the uncertainty created by rising coronavirus case counts and the election. The October jobs report was a highlight, as both the number of new jobs added and the unemployment rate came in better than expected. Business and consumer confidence, however, declined slightly during the month, though they still remain well off the lows. Overall, this was a month that showed continued improvement, as well as the ongoing risk the pandemic represents to the recovery as we head into the end of the year.

Last week was relatively quiet on the economic update front, with a focus on October’s inflation reports, the weekly initial claims report, and the first look at consumer confidence in November. This week will be busier, with releases on retail sales, industrial production, and housing.

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. On the medical front, case growth continues to accelerate, and new cases have reached all-time highs. This is something we need to watch, as the third wave is at a level where the national risks are material.

Yesterday I appeared on Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round to discuss the impact of the coronavirus vaccine news on the market. Listen in to hear more.

As expected, the medical news continues to get worse. The third wave of infections has accelerated around the country. Case growth has again moved to new highs, and the geographic spread of this wave of outbreaks continues to deepen. Case growth in many states remains at levels that threaten health care systems, and several states are moving back to lockdown mode.

The other day, I wrote about my initial reaction to the election. At the time, a winner had not been called. But the fact that the election had gone smoothly—with none of the disruptions that had been feared—was a very good sign, and that was likely to be a tailwind for the markets.

A lot has changed in the past week. I normally try and get this post up earlier in the month, but with everything that has happened—and which has demanded comment—this is the earliest I could fit it in. But that is a good thing, as the ”looking forward” piece is now going to be rather different than it would have been last week. So, let’s take a look back and then forward, and try and figure out where we are going in the next couple of weeks.

Last week saw a number of important economic updates, with a focus on October’s business confidence and employment reports. The job report was a highlight, as more jobs were added during the month than expected and unemployment fell notably. This week will be relatively quiet, with updates focusing on inflation, the weekly jobless claims report, and the first look at consumer sentiment for November.