Last week’s economic updates largely pointed to a slowing economic recovery as we headed into the end of the year. The evidence includes a drop in personal spending in November, falling consumer confidence, and continued high levels of weekly layoffs. There were some signs for optimism, however, as business investment remained resilient and housing sales stayed strong on a year-over-year basis. Due to the holidays, this week will be very quiet, with only the weekly initial jobless claims report set to be released.

Today's post is from Brian Price, senior vice president of investment management and research.

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including what it means for the economy and markets. On the medical front, there were signs the third wave may be cresting, as both new cases and positive tests have ticked down. Further, people are now getting the Pfizer vaccine, and the Moderna vaccine will soon be available.

Today’s post comes to you from Nick Follett, fixed income manager on our Investment Management and Research team.

Last week’s data releases largely showed a slowing economic recovery, as evidenced by declining retail sales figures for October and November and a disappointing rise in initial jobless claims. With that being said, the housing sector remains healthy and manufacturing continues to show signs of improvement. This will be a busy week for economic updates, with reports scheduled that touch on consumer confidence, home sales, durable goods orders, and personal income and spending.

Today’s post comes to you from Rob Swanke, fixed income analyst on our Investment Management and Research team.

The third wave of the pandemic may be showing signs of a peak. While new cases remain very high, the seven-day daily average was down for two days in the past week, suggesting we may be close to a peak. Given the lag from Thanksgiving, that conclusion seems reasonable as much of the travel surge should be starting to play out, while control measures are becoming more widespread.

With the start of COVID vaccinations and signs that the third wave may be peaking, I have been thinking a lot about what the new normal will look like—and what it will mean for us as investors. We are not there yet, of course. But we can see the end of the pandemic in the not-too-distant future. Markets are already there, but markets tend to have a ready-fire-aim approach. So, there is still an opportunity to be thoughtful. Let’s walk through what the new normal might look like.

We’re nearing the end of a hard year, with the pandemic raging once again and the economy starting to slow. On the other hand, vaccines will soon be coming into play, companies are adapting, and there is the possibility of a spending boom next year. Despite risks ahead (e.g., the chance of another surge of infections with holiday travel), could 2021 be better for medical news, for the economy, and for the markets?

A lot has been written about how bad things are. Although vaccines are now being deployed, daily new cases continue to hit new highs. Even as testing expands, the positive rates remain way too high, signaling that the virus continues to spread. States that had the virus under control are now seeing new outbreaks.