Last week was relatively quiet on the economic update front, with a focus on October’s inflation reports, the weekly initial claims report, and the first look at consumer confidence in November. This week will be busier, with releases on retail sales, industrial production, and housing.

Today, I'd like to provide an update on the coronavirus, including the economic and market implications. On the medical front, case growth continues to accelerate, and new cases have reached all-time highs. This is something we need to watch, as the third wave is at a level where the national risks are material.

Yesterday I appeared on Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round to discuss the impact of the coronavirus vaccine news on the market. Listen in to hear more.

As expected, the medical news continues to get worse. The third wave of infections has accelerated around the country. Case growth has again moved to new highs, and the geographic spread of this wave of outbreaks continues to deepen. Case growth in many states remains at levels that threaten health care systems, and several states are moving back to lockdown mode.

The other day, I wrote about my initial reaction to the election. At the time, a winner had not been called. But the fact that the election had gone smoothly—with none of the disruptions that had been feared—was a very good sign, and that was likely to be a tailwind for the markets.

A lot has changed in the past week. I normally try and get this post up earlier in the month, but with everything that has happened—and which has demanded comment—this is the earliest I could fit it in. But that is a good thing, as the ”looking forward” piece is now going to be rather different than it would have been last week. So, let’s take a look back and then forward, and try and figure out where we are going in the next couple of weeks.

Last week saw a number of important economic updates, with a focus on October’s business confidence and employment reports. The job report was a highlight, as more jobs were added during the month than expected and unemployment fell notably. This week will be relatively quiet, with updates focusing on inflation, the weekly jobless claims report, and the first look at consumer sentiment for November.

The most important economic report—the jobs report—came out this morning, and it was surprisingly strong. This strength was not so much in the headline number, but in the details. Let’s start out with the headlines and drill down to what this report means for the economy going forward, especially in light of the ongoing pandemic.

The big news this week was the election. Although the outcome remains unresolved, the fact that the election itself went without a hitch has substantially reduced the perceived political risks. While we still have weeks or possibly months of litigation ahead, the worst risks are now off the table. Markets have been cheering this shift over the past two days.

“It will take as long as it takes,” a reported quote from the Pennsylvania attorney general about the vote count, can also apply to the election itself. Indeed, from where we stand right now, the Pennsylvania vote count will determine the election. We don’t know what the final answer is, and we don’t know when we will know. So, are we any further along than yesterday?