The Independent Market Observer

Market Outlook: Strong January, Strong Year?

February 1, 2024

Thus far, market momentum has carried over from 2023 into 2024. Things started slow, with the S&P 500 closing down more than 1.5 percent during the first week of the year. But it has since rebounded sharply, hitting several new all-time highs in the process and closing the month of January up 1.59 percent.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Economic Growth Beats Expectations

January 29, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Sentiment Soars in January

January 22, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Will India Steal China’s Thunder Within Emerging Markets?

January 18, 2024

Emerging markets may not always be top of mind when building portfolios, but their importance to global growth should not be ignored. In the International Monetary Fund (IMF) October Global Forecast, the IMF noted that advanced economies’ contribution has slowed from a peak of 38 percent of global economic growth in 2006 to an expected 15 percent in 2023. Over the same time frame, emerging and middle-income economies have risen from 58 percent of global growth to an expected 78 percent of global growth in 2023. 

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Monthly Market Risk Update: January 2024 [SlideShare]

January 17, 2024

Equity markets continued to rally in December, with all three major U.S. indices up for the month. The S&P 500 gained 4.54 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 4.93 percent in December. The Nasdaq Composite led the way as the technology-heavy index gained 5.85 percent. Falling interest rates supported higher valuations during the month, leading to positive returns for stocks.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Mixed December Inflation Reports

January 16, 2024

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

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Q4 2023 Earnings Preview: A Glass Half-Full for 2024?

January 11, 2024

Making New Year’s resolutions usually involves some level of reflection on how to be a better person and the possibilities ahead. You might write down your goals for the future, while also looking back on your accomplishments (and failures). In doing so, you may find growth where you didn’t expect it, even if it comes in the form of small wins toward your bigger goals.

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Can Market Momentum Continue into the Election Year?

January 10, 2024

Today, I’d like to revisit a key point from my November blog post—the market’s run to end the year—and then cap it off with some historical election year data.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: January 2024 [SlideShare]

January 10, 2024

The reports released in December showed solid economic growth to finish the year. Hiring accelerated, as 217,000 jobs were added in December against 179,000 jobs in November. Consumer confidence also improved notably, but service sector confidence fell. The yield curve inversion widened again in December, marking two consecutive months of an increasing inversion.

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Navigating Uncertainty: What We’re Hearing from Portfolio Managers

January 8, 2024

When I speak to folks interested in a financial services career, I tell them the best thing about it is that every day is different. This is something that the economy and the markets have made abundantly clear over the past few years. I also often think back to a TV show from the late 1990s, Early Edition, where the main character gets the newspaper the day before it’s published and uses what he’s learned to help others. In challenging times, this might prove useful in finding investment success for clients. Alas, it’s not a resource we have at our disposal. But what we do have is insight from various portfolio managers across the industry.

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Disclosure

The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divides the current share price of the index by its estimated future earnings.

Third-party links are provided to you as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided on these websites. Information on such sites, including third-party links contained within, should not be construed as an endorsement or adoption by Commonwealth of any kind. You should consult with a financial advisor regarding your specific situation.

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