Monthly Market Risk Update: November 2019

November 7, 2019

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

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Appearance on Yahoo Finance's On the Move, November 07, 2019 [Video]

November 7, 2019

Is the market trading on fundamentals or politics? I discussed this and more today on Yahoo Finance’s On the Move.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: November 2019

November 6, 2019

My colleague Sam Millette, senior investment research analyst on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!

The economic data released in October largely came in better than expected, with increasing service sector and consumer confidence offsetting some of the declines we saw in September. Job creation also came in better than anticipated, and the yield curve normalized for the first time in months. Despite these positive results, the longer-term trends continue to deteriorate, suggesting there are still very real risks in the economy that should be monitored going forward.

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A Look Back at the Markets in October and Ahead to November 2019

November 5, 2019

September and October are historically the two weakest months of the year, and markets did enter October in a nervous state. September ended on a positive note, but there was a drop that continued into the start of October. That decline took away all of the gains from the prior month and threatened to take the markets even lower. This move would have made sense, as the economic news was weakening. But markets went on to rebound and have a very good month. That reversal is the story of last month and very possibly of this one.

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Monday Update: Economy Grows Faster Than Expected in Third Quarter

November 4, 2019

Last week was jam-packed with economic updates, many of which beat expectations. Faster-than-expected GDP growth in the third quarter and a stronger-than-expected October employment report highlighted a week in which the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps. This week will be quieter, with notable releases on international trade, the service sector, and consumer confidence.

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Market Thoughts for November 2019 [Video]

November 1, 2019

October was a great month, with U.S. markets doing well and international markets doing even better. This positive news was surprising, given the impeachment inquiry, weak job growth, and declining business confidence. Still, major sectors of the economy remain strong. Consumers continue to earn and spend more. Plus, the Fed has gotten behind the markets with rate cuts at its last two meetings. But is there volatility ahead? Watch my latest Market Thoughts video to learn more.

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The Fed Does Trick or Treat

October 31, 2019

Yesterday, the Fed announced that it was cutting rates one more time, in response to continued economic weakness. That decision was the treat. Markets responded accordingly, with stock markets rising. The trick, however, was in the implication—of the statement and the press conference—that this would be the last cut unless the economy deteriorated further. The implied probability of a December rate cut dropped to 22 percent, the dollar index dropped, and the rate on the 10-year Treasury declined. The Fed giveth and the Fed taketh away.

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Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

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