The Independent Market Observer

Economic Release Snapshot: Producer Inflation Moderates at Year-End

January 23, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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Investor Worries on the Rise—But Is It Time to Panic?

January 20, 2023

I have gotten more than the usual number of worried emails, texts, and calls recently—not only from Commonwealth advisors, driven by the concerns of their clients, but from my clients as well. While I understand most of what’s behind those worries—the debt ceiling, at the moment—what is interesting is that last year, during the bear market, I heard much less in the way of worry. It’s not that people weren’t concerned, but there wasn’t the level of immediate fear that I am hearing right now.

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The U.S. Hits the Debt Ceiling (Again): Now What?

January 19, 2023

As of today, the U.S. has borrowed as much as it legally can and will be prohibited from borrowing any more. Or, in the language of the headlines, we have hit the debt ceiling. The new Congress has failed to pass a law allowing the Treasury to borrow the money to make payments that previous Congresses have required the Treasury to make. The Treasury will therefore have to use cash on hand right now, as well as any inflows, to pay the outstanding bills for as long as it can—until the money runs out.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: January 2023 [SlideShare]

January 18, 2023

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Expectations Fall

January 17, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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Will Q4 Earnings Defy Expectations?

January 13, 2023

We are at the start of the period in which companies release their results for the fourth quarter of 2022, known as earnings season. With everything going on—inflation, rate hikes, a labor shortage, the strength of the dollar, a pending recession, the list goes on and on—the results are unusually uncertain this time around. Analysts are struggling to figure out exactly what all this means.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: January 2023 [SlideShare]

January 11, 2023

My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam! Let’s take a closer look.

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The Debt Ceiling: We’ve Seen This Movie Before

January 10, 2023

With the new Congress taking office—and specifically the extended time it took for the House Republicans to elect their new speaker—markets are increasingly focused on the potential effects of politics on the economy this year. I have had several questions about the debt ceiling in particular, so let’s take some time and think through what all of this might mean.

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Economic Release Snapshot: Business Confidence Drops

January 9, 2023

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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Looking Back at the Markets in December and Ahead to January 2023

January 6, 2023

December saw a sell-off, reversing some of the bounce from October and November and leaving markets up for the quarter. Unfortunately, that only reversed a small part of the damage done earlier in the year. 2022 closed as one of the worst years in recent memory for financial markets.

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