Should We Be Worried About the Fed’s Balance Sheet?

November 14, 2017

When speaking with clients over the past couple of weeks, I have had several questions about whether we should be worried as the Fed begins to reduce its balance sheet. With the Fed starting to sell securities, the concern is that interest rates could spike and financial markets could become unsettled.

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Appearance on TheStreet, November 14, 2017 [Video]

November 14, 2017

Given recent weakness, could the S&P 500 still hit 2,700 by the end of the year?

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Monday Update: Consumers Slightly Less Confident

November 13, 2017

Last week was a very slow one for economic news, although the week ahead will be much busier. So, let’s jump right in.

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What Will the Markets Do in 2018?

November 10, 2017

I am really coming to grips with my 2018 outlook, and I find myself wrestling with the implications of slowing growth on the economy and, in particular, the markets. The fundamentals have been strong, with good earnings growth driving the markets up. The other major factor has been confidence, both business and consumer, which (despite everything) has been rising. Typically, rising confidence drives stock market multiples higher—and that is exactly what has happened this year. So, the great market results we’re seeing have been the result of a double whammy: improving fundamentals as confidence and valuations rise.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: November 2017

November 9, 2017

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for November? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: November 2017

November 8, 2017

As we work our way through the effects of the hurricanes on the economic data, the news remains very positive. October’s results largely preserved or even improved on September’s strong data, with job growth rebounding and confidence at high levels for both business and consumers. Fed policy, despite the expected rate hikes ahead, remains stimulative.

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Saudi Arabia and the Republican Tax Plan: Will the Markets React?

November 7, 2017

It has been a busy couple of days in the news. So, while I don’t ordinarily quote Lenin, his statement that “there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen” is just too applicable to ignore. The events in Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, in Washington are potentially changing the range of reasonable future outcomes—to a degree that markets are not fully discounting.

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Tune in to CNBC's Squawk Box on Monday, November 27, at 6:15 A.M. ET to hear Brad talk about the markets. Check your local listings for availability.

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