Will the Fed Cut Rates to Negative?

March 14, 2019

Brad here. With the Fed widely perceived as having hit pause on rate increases, with the European Central Bank launching stimulus again, and with rates declining around the world (back into negative territory, in many cases), it is time to start thinking about what the Fed might do in the next recession. Anu Gaggar of our Research department put some relevant ideas together that we should be considering as we contemplate the next couple of years. Thanks, Anu!

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Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2019

March 13, 2019

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for March? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: March 2019

March 12, 2019

After signs of weakness in January, the question was whether we would see a rebound in February. In some areas—consumer and business confidence—we did, largely driven by the end of the government shutdown. This confidence rebound has reduced risk going forward, although we need to pay attention to whether it holds.

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Monday Update: Weak Trade and Jobs Data, But Business Confidence Improves

March 11, 2019

Last week was a busy one in terms of economic updates, including the very important jobs report. This week, we’ll get a look at retail sales and manufacturing.

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Disappointing Jobs Report Not the End of the World

March 8, 2019

There’s no getting around it: the jobs report, with only 20,000 jobs added last month across the entire U.S., stinks. This is a terrible report, and it should strike fear and loathing into the hearts of every economist and citizen in the country. This opinion is the bulk of what I suspect you will be hearing, and it is largely correct.

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19 Years Ago, Dot-Com Hit Its Peak

March 7, 2019

Yesterday, I wrote about how we’re approaching the 10th anniversary of the market bottom, when the S&P 500 touched 666 and then started to rebound. Today, I want to talk about a different market milestone: March 10, 2000 (19 years ago this weekend). That’s when the Nasdaq Composite, the tech index that exemplified the dot-com boom, peaked and started to decline.

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10 Years After the Market Hit Bottom, Where Are We Now?

March 6, 2019

I am in Colorado this week at a Commonwealth conference, spending some time at high altitude when I normally live pretty much at sea level. The altitude seems somehow appropriate, though, when I look at where the markets are right now compared with where they were 10 years ago. We have climbed to astonishing heights since the bottom—heights almost no one expected back then.

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Upcoming Appearances

Tune into Fox Business' Mornings with Maria on Monday, March 25, between 3:00 P.M and 4:00 P.M ET to hear Brad talk about the markets. Exact interview time will be updated once confirmed. Check local listings for availability. 

Tune into Bloomberg Radio's Bloomberg Businessweek on Monday, March 25, at 3:45 P.M. ET to hear Brad talk about the markets. Listen at Sirius XM Channel 119 or online at bloombergradio.com. 

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