Monday Update: Inflation Pulls Back

May 14, 2018

Last week was largely focused on prices, although we got a look at consumer confidence. This week, we’ll be watching the economic data to see whether earlier signs of a slowdown are passing.

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A Longer-Term Look at Oil

May 11, 2018

After writing yesterday’s post on the price of oil, I thought it might be useful to take a longer-term look at the behavior of oil. I think this will provide some context to yesterday’s discussion, as well as to future developments. To start, let’s look at the price history over the past 30 years.

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The Price of Oil: Is It Time to Worry?

May 10, 2018

Oil has been in the news quite a bit recently. Prices have risen to multiyear highs, and the recent decision by the U.S. to reimpose sanctions on Iran has rattled markets even further. We know that oil prices are a key risk indicator for the economy, but is it time to start worrying? Plus, what do higher oil prices mean—if anything—for the financial markets?

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A Look Back at the Markets in April and Ahead to May

May 9, 2018

As we start moving further into May, I think it’s a good time to take a look back at April’s economic news, plus what to expect in the month ahead.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: May 2018

May 8, 2018

Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market itself. So, what do these risks look like for May? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

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Monday Update: Growth Strong But Slowing

May 7, 2018

Last week was an extremely busy one for economic news, which gave us a look at all major sectors and concluded with the all-important employment report. Overall, while the economic statistics remain quite positive, there are signs of slowing. This week, the main focus will be on prices, plus we’ll get a look at consumer confidence.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2018

May 4, 2018

April’s data continued to be solid overall. Job growth recovered and March’s weak report was revised upward significantly, easing one concern. Consumer confidence also bounced back a bit. More worrying is that business confidence moved further off the high, although this would be a change in trend rather than an immediate concern. Fed policy continues to be stimulative, which is helpful, despite the recent rate increase. Overall, the economic data indicates that growth continues, although it may have peaked.

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Upcoming Appearances

Tune in to CNBC’s Squawk on the Street this Friday, May 25, between 10:00 A.M. and 12:00 P.M. ET to hear Brad talk about the markets. Exact interview time will be updated once confirmed. Check your local listings for availability. 

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