Magazines and the Market

July 12, 2019

One of my colleagues sent around the most recent issue of The Economist, noting that the cover story, “Riding High: What Could Bring Down America’s Economy?”, may well be a contrarian indicator. I haven’t read the article yet, but I suspect the publication may be in on the irony here. Nonetheless, the fact that The Economist can put this story up could be a sign that the economy really is getting close to a turning point.

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Appearance on Cheddar TV, July 11, 2019 [Video]

July 12, 2019

Do worries keep the economy moving? Yesterday, I appeared on Cheddar TV  to discuss this and more.

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Monthly Market Risk Update: July 2019

July 11, 2019

It’s time for our monthly look at market risk factors. Just as with the economy, there are several key factors that matter for the market in determining both the risk level and the immediacy of the risk. Although stocks remain close to all-time highs, the recent volatility is a reminder that, given valuations and recent market behavior, it is useful to keep an eye on these factors.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2019

July 10, 2019

Although there was some good news last month—job growth bounced back to come in well above expectations—the overall trend remains negative. Confidence has continued to decline, while the yield curve hit an official inversion as of the end of June. That said, conditions remain generally favorable, with all metrics in expansionary territory except the yield curve, but there is no doubt the risk level has risen further. That risk still does not look immediate, but that point may be getting closer.

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A Look Back at the Markets in Q2 and Ahead to Q3 2019

July 9, 2019

Q2 2019: it was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Okay, it wasn’t either, but last quarter we did see something that looked like both. After hitting new highs in April (the best!), markets declined significantly in May for the first time all year (the worst!) and then bounced back in June close to all-time highs. Internationally, we saw the same story, although to a lesser extent, as both developed and emerging markets echoed U.S. performance with an up-down-up pattern. We closed the quarter on a positive note, though, with all major indices up around the world. As far as the stock market is concerned, it was a good quarter.

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Monday Update: Jobs Report Highlight of the Week

July 8, 2019

There were a number of important economic updates released last week, as we kicked off the second half of the year. The most notable release was June's employment report, which came in much better than anticipated. This will be a relatively quiet week on the economic update front, with a focus on the Fed and inflation. 

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2019 Midyear Update [Video]

July 5, 2019

Growth has been solid this year. Consumers remain confident, and business continues to hire and invest. Indeed, markets have responded to these positive conditions, as they are once again close to new highs. If the economy continues to grow and the fundamentals remain solid, which is likely, we should continue to see more progress in the markets.

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