The Independent Market Observer

6/7/13 – First Thoughts About Amsterdam

June 7, 2013

I really like Amsterdam. I’m not sure exactly what it is, but I’ve never taken to a city like I have this one. Part of it is just that the city seems to work. The trams run on time and have an easily understood layout. The streets and canals are reasonably clean. The people are all clean and healthy, at least as far as I saw. They are also, by and large, courteous and helpful to the traveler.

Another plus was the weather. We really lucked out—it was sunny, warm, and pleasant the whole time. There were lots of very nice playgrounds, which got the five-year-old-boy vote. And there were small boats for rent on the canals, another bonus for Jackson.

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6/6/13 – Should Investors Worry About a Student Loan Debt Crisis?

June 6, 2013

Guest post from Sean Fullerton, investment research analyst

Every so often, articles surface about the rising level of student loan debt and the risk it poses to the economy. The implication is often that the crisis brought on by excessive mortgage lending could be echoed by a similar crash in education-related debt. To examine these claims, let’s first look at some scary figures surrounding student loan debt.

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6/5/13 – U.S. Treasury Refinancing Risks

June 5, 2013

As of the end of 2012, the average maturity of U.S. debt was around five years—65 months to be exact—up considerably from the October 2008 trough, and the longest average maturity in a decade, according to the Wall Street Journal. The Treasury intends to continue extending the maturity, with a goal of around 80 months in 2022.

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6/4/13 – Book Review: Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (and How to Take Advantage of It)

June 4, 2013

Not long ago, I reviewed William Poundstone’s Fortune’s Formula, a very good and relevant book about the common mathematical roots of gambling and investing, which I originally picked up as part of my poker-playing research.

Poker is based on probability and, to a much greater degree, on psychology. I did all right in my poker playing, ending up well in the black, but ultimately became much more interested in the markets, which is why I’m doing what I do now.

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6/3/13 – June 2013 Market Thoughts Video

June 3, 2013

[youtube=http://youtu.be/jhvAJeuFfds?rel=0hd=1]

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6/3/13 – Newsflash: We Are at War—And Have Been for Some Time

June 3, 2013

One of the questions I’ve been getting lately has been about rising geopolitical tensions and what that means for investing. Recently, the focus has been on North Korea, but, with the Israeli strikes in Syria, that should be coming up as a topic soon.

My usual response, which isn’t meant to be flip, is that I’d be more worried if things were quiet. If they’re making noise, we at least kind of know what they’re thinking.

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5/31/13 – More Good News About the U.S. Economy

May 31, 2013

The good news just keeps coming. This week, we’ve had a seven-year record for home price increases, up over 10 percent from the year before, as well as a rise in the consumer confidence index to a five-year high.

Both show that the improvement in the U.S. economy is wide and sustainable. Representing two-thirds of the economy, consumer spending is the most important part, and higher consumer confidence and wealth suggests that spending will continue—and may well accelerate.

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5/30/13 – Off to Europe

May 30, 2013

I’ll be out of the office for the next week on a trip to Europe, staying in Amsterdam for a week and then a couple of days in Dublin. This is a family vacation, so I’ll certainly be able to report on the five-year-old-boy perspective when I return.

On top of that, though, the trip will offer a valuable eyewitness look at two critical areas in the eurozone. The Netherlands is one of the core northern countries that’s paying the bills—and becoming increasingly conflicted about continuing to do so. I look forward to seeing how that national conversation looks on the ground.

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5/29/13 – U.S. Energy: Beyond Fracking

May 29, 2013

I have written about energy before, but, based on the number of recent news stories on the topic, I think it’s worth taking another look at just how much the energy landscape has changed over the past couple of years.

Last summer, I wrote that, with so many new technologies brewing, it was almost certain that at least some of them would pan out. I wrote about the shift of narrative, recalling a meeting with clients in Massachusetts where I actually sparked an argument about which solar program was better. I wrote about how fracking would be a transition phase.

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5/28/13 – Welcome to Summer

May 28, 2013

My family and I spent the holiday weekend in Maine. Unfortunately, it was in the 40s and 50s on Saturday and Sunday, and, unsurprisingly, there weren’t a lot of people at the pool. Fortunately, Jackson, my now five-year-old son, was happy to spend some quality time snuggled up next to Dad watching movies while Dad read. Sometimes, a quiet weekend is just right.

We did get out a bit, including a drive to the nature lodge on the top of Mount Agamenticus, a local mountain with wonderful views from the summit (on a clear day, which this was not) and miles of trails. Jackson and I have hiked up there before, but this time we just wanted to show it to Mom, who was duly impressed. We’ll be heading back later this summer to do some more hiking.

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