The Independent Market Observer

The Greatest Country in the World? Reasons to Celebrate America

July 8, 2014

I hope everyone had as much fun over the recent holiday weekend as my family did. Between picnics on the beach, a hike up a (small) mountain, lots of playing in the pool, and going to see How to Train Your Dragon 2, a great time was had by all.

Part of the whole Fourth of July ambience, of course, is reminding your kids that they live in the greatest country in the world. That’s very true in some ways; in others, not so much. But the holiday inspired me to revisit just how well positioned the U.S. is compared with other countries, and why we’re lucky to be living here.

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Two Cheers for the Employment Report

July 7, 2014

The string of 200,000-plus employment reports just got a little longer.

The number at the end of last week—288,000 new jobs—far surpassed the expected level of 215,000. It’s also well above the figures for the preceding months, which were themselves strong. The consistency of the gains provides further support for their durability.

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Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2014

July 3, 2014

In this monthly series, I look at risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead.

Although one potential problem area has emerged since last month’s update, most indicators continue to show improvement, and the overall economic forecast remains good. Headed into the July Fourth weekend, it looks like we’re cleared for more sunny weather!

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Reasons to Look Beyond Cap-Weighted Indices

July 2, 2014

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all stock indices are not created equal.

Although capitalization-weighted indices are the most common, they’re not the only type of index out there. As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, products based on nontraditional indices can offer investors broad exposure and low costs, along with the potential to outperform the usual indices.

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Market Thoughts for July 2014

July 2, 2014

In my latest Market Thoughts video, I talk about the revision to the first-quarter economic growth numbers and the current state of the U.S. and international markets. You'll also hear my thoughts on potential risks, including the situation in Iraq.

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Does Active Management Deliver Alpha?

July 1, 2014

Alpha—the excess return a money manager can generate, above and beyond the return due to general market effects—is an elusive beast.

It’s defined in opposition to beta, which reflects an investment’s tendency to respond to swings in the market. If your stock has a beta of 1, for example, it tends to move much as the market does. If the market rises 10 percent, and the stock goes up 10 percent (just as expected), how much credit should a manager get?

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Is the Stock Market Getting Overextended?

June 30, 2014

With all of the data out there—and all of the different takes on where the economy and financial markets are going—is there a warning sign that can tell us if the stock market is getting overextended?

I track several signals that are good economic indicators, but the stock market is tougher. There aren't any really good signals out there. Even the one I use most, the 200-day moving average, isn’t all that great.

One sign of a pending top, though, has become more apparent in recent weeks: investors are increasingly invoking 1999 to explain why the market is now reasonably priced.

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The Aereo Decision: In Praise of Content Creators

June 27, 2014

I have mixed feelings about the Aereo decision. 

If you haven’t heard, the Supreme Court ruled this week that Aereo—a company that uses multiple small antennas to capture TV broadcasts, which it then streams to subscribers over the web—violated copyright law.

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Appearance on CNBC Worldwide Exchange

June 25, 2014

Learn why I told CNBC Worldwide Exchange that I think taking out protection against a deeper correction is a good idea at this point in an interview today, June 25

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What If the U.S. Set Oil Prices?

June 25, 2014

For decades now, the U.S. has essentially had to accept the oil prices set by world markets. Starting in 1973 with the OPEC-driven oil shock, the major producers have been foreign countries. If the U.S. wanted the oil, we had to pay the price.

But are things starting to change?

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The information on this website is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed market country indices.

One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility across a wide range of S&P 500 options.

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